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Conflict Resolution through Mutuality: Lessons from Bayesian Updating

  • Srijit Mishra

If priors are deterministic (zero or unity) and conditional evidence is uncertain (lies between zero and one) then Bayesian updating will lead to posteriors that are the same as priors. This in a sense explains the persistence of fundamentalist belief. Under such a belief system, only if conditional evidence is deterministic and diametrically opposite to that of the prior then a process of change can set in. Conflict resolution is possible through dialogues that calls for mutual respect and allows reasonable pluralism - a Rawlsian prerequisite. If interaction is the basis then self-defeating scenarios can be avoided by giving space to others. Thus, in the political sphere one has to be accommodative.

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Article provided by The Indian Econometric Society in its journal Journal of Quantitative Economics.

Volume (Year): 9 (2011)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 41-52

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Handle: RePEc:jqe:jqenew:v:9:y:2011:i:1:p:41-52
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Order Information: Postal: Managing Editor, Journal of Quantitative Economics, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research (IGIDR), Gen. A.K. Vaidya Marg, Goregaon (E), Mumbai 400 065 , INDIA

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  1. Llussá, Fernanda & Tavares, José, 2007. "Economics and Terrorism: What We Know, What We Should Know and the Data We Need," CEPR Discussion Papers 6509, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Srijit Mishra, 2011. "Conflict resolution through mutuality: Lessons from Bayesian updating," Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai Working Papers 2011-001, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai, India.
  3. Kuhn, H.W. & Harsanyi, J.C. & Selten, R. & Weibull, J.W. & van Damme, E.E.C. & Nash Jr, J.F. & Hammerstein, P., 1995. "The work of John F. Nash Jr. in game theory," Other publications TiSEM fe698573-e6d1-4080-866e-7, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
  4. Srijit Mishra, 2003. "Understanding Fundamentalist Belief Through Bayesian Updating," Microeconomics Working Papers 22391, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
  5. Borgers, Tilman, 1996. "On the Relevance of Learning and Evolution to Economic Theory," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 106(438), pages 1374-85, September.
  6. Alberto Baccini, 2001. "Frequentist Probability and Choice under Uncertainty," History of Political Economy, Duke University Press, vol. 33(4), pages 743-772, Winter.
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