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Conflict Resolution through Mutuality: Lessons from Bayesian Updating

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  • Srijit Mishra

Abstract

If priors are deterministic (zero or unity) and conditional evidence is uncertain (lies between zero and one) then Bayesian updating will lead to posteriors that are the same as priors. This in a sense explains the persistence of fundamentalist belief. Under such a belief system, only if conditional evidence is deterministic and diametrically opposite to that of the prior then a process of change can set in. Conflict resolution is possible through dialogues that calls for mutual respect and allows reasonable pluralism - a Rawlsian prerequisite. If interaction is the basis then self-defeating scenarios can be avoided by giving space to others. Thus, in the political sphere one has to be accommodative.

Suggested Citation

  • Srijit Mishra, 2011. "Conflict Resolution through Mutuality: Lessons from Bayesian Updating," Journal of Quantitative Economics, The Indian Econometric Society, vol. 9(1), pages 41-52.
  • Handle: RePEc:jqe:jqenew:v:9:y:2011:i:1:p:41-52
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Srijit Mishra, 2002. "Understanding fundamentalist belief through Bayesian updating," Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai Working Papers 2003-002, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai, India.
    2. Borgers, Tilman, 1996. "On the Relevance of Learning and Evolution to Economic Theory," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 106(438), pages 1374-1385, September.
    3. Srijit Mishra, 2011. "Conflict Resolution through Mutuality: Lessons from Bayesian Updating," Journal of Quantitative Economics, The Indian Econometric Society, vol. 9(1), pages 41-52.
    4. Llussá, Fernanda & Tavares, José, 2007. "Economics and Terrorism: What We Know, What We Should Know and the Data We Need," CEPR Discussion Papers 6509, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. Alberto Baccini, 2001. "Frequentist Probability and Choice under Uncertainty," History of Political Economy, Duke University Press, vol. 33(4), pages 743-772, Winter.
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    1. Srijit Mishra, 2011. "Conflict Resolution through Mutuality: Lessons from Bayesian Updating," Journal of Quantitative Economics, The Indian Econometric Society, vol. 9(1), pages 41-52.
    2. Srijit Mishra, 2011. "Conflict Resolution through Mutuality: Lessons from Bayesian Updating," Journal of Quantitative Economics, The Indian Econometric Society, vol. 9(1), pages 41-52.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • A13 - General Economics and Teaching - - General Economics - - - Relation of Economics to Social Values
    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General

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