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Wirtschaftspolitische Herausforderungen 2016

Author

Listed:
  • Gustav Horn

    (Macroeconomic Policy Institute (IMK))

  • Alexander Herzog-Stein

    (Macroeconomic Policy Institute (IMK))

  • Katja Rietzler

    (Macroeconomic Policy Institute (IMK))

  • Silke Tober

    (Macroeconomic Policy Institute (IMK))

  • Andrew James Watt

    (Macroeconomic Policy Institute (IMK))

Abstract

Vermehrte öffentliche Investitionen in Bildung, Infrastruktur und ökologische Erneuerung sind in Deutschland nicht nur dringend erforderlich, sondern können zudem den schwachen privaten Investitionen Antrieb verleihen. Zwar verringert sich der Überschuss der öffentlichen Haushalte durch die Ausgaben für Flüchtlinge deutlich, es besteht aber weiterhin ein hoher fiskalischer Spielraum, den es zu nutzen gilt. Dies ist umso wichtiger als sich die Wirtschaft des Euroraums auf einem nur zaghaften Erholungskurs befindet. Es besteht weiterhin ein nennenswertes Deflationsrisiko und Hysterese-Effekte drohen das Wachstumspotenzial dauerhaft zu beeinträchtigen. Die Geldpolitik wirkt zwar stabilisierend, ist aber gegenwärtig nicht alleine in der Lage, einen Aufschwung anzustoßen. Es fehlt ein expansiver fiskalpolitischer Impuls. Die Abkehr vom strengen Austeritätskurs und der Juncker-Plan reichen nicht aus, zumal im Rahmen der europäischen Fiskalregeln nur sehr begrenzte fiskalpolitische Spielräume für die Euroländer bestehen. Eine Reform der Regeln, beispielsweise in Richtung einer "Golden Rule", ist notwendig.

Suggested Citation

  • Gustav Horn & Alexander Herzog-Stein & Katja Rietzler & Silke Tober & Andrew James Watt, 2016. "Wirtschaftspolitische Herausforderungen 2016," IMK Report 111-2016, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    • Handle: RePEc:imk:report:111-2016
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Blanchard, Olivier & Giavazzi, Francesco, 2004. "Improving the SGP Through a Proper Accounting of Public Investment," CEPR Discussion Papers 4220, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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