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Is the Growth Momentum in Latin America Sustainable?

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  • Mr. Sebastian Sosa
  • Ms. Evridiki Tsounta
  • Miss Marie S Kim

Abstract

A favorable external environment coupled with prudent policies fostered output growth in most of Latin America during the last decade. But, what were the drivers of this strong growth performance from the supply side and will this momentum be sustainable in the years ahead? We address these questions by identifying the proximate causes of the recent high GDP growth and estimating potential growth rates for the period ahead for a large group of Latin American countries based on standard (Solow-style) growth accounting methodologies. We find that factor accumulation (especially labor), rather than growth in total factor productivity (TFP), remains the main driver of GDP growth. Moving forward, given the expected moderation of capital accumulation and some natural constraints on labor, the strong growth momentum is unlikely to be sustainable unless TFP performance improves significantly.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Sebastian Sosa & Ms. Evridiki Tsounta & Miss Marie S Kim, 2013. "Is the Growth Momentum in Latin America Sustainable?," IMF Working Papers 2013/109, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2013/109
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    2. Sethi, Amarjit Singh, 2016. "Sources of Growth in India: Evidence from Punjab and Haryana," Journal of Regional Development and Planning, Rajarshi Majumder, vol. 5(1), pages 15-34.
    3. Raquel Puente & María Antonia Cervilla & Carlos Giovanni González & Nunzia Auletta, 2017. "Determinants of the growth aspiration: a quantitative study of Venezuelan entrepreneurs," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 48(3), pages 699-726, March.
    4. Mr. Roberto Garcia-Saltos & Fan Zhang & Iulia Ruxandra Teodoru, 2016. "Potential Output Growth Estimates for Central America and the Dominican Republic," IMF Working Papers 2016/250, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Mr. Christian A Johnson, 2013. "Potential Output and Output Gap in Central America, Panama and Dominican Republic," IMF Working Papers 2013/145, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Don P. Clark & W. Charles Sawyer, 2014. "Stages of diversification in Latin America," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(13), pages 893-897, September.
    7. Ms. Evridiki Tsounta, 2014. "Slowdown in Emerging Markets: Sign of a Bumpy Road Ahead?," IMF Working Papers 2014/205, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Cáceres, Luis René, 2021. "Labour productivity and Central American economic integration: the case of El Salvador," Revista CEPAL, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), April.
    9. Fossati, Sebastian, 2014. "Output Growth and Commodity Prices in Latin America: What Has Changed?," Working Papers 2014-11, University of Alberta, Department of Economics.
    10. Iván Kataryniuk & Jaime Martínez-Martín, 2019. "TFP Growth and Commodity Prices in Emerging Economies," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 55(10), pages 2211-2229, August.
    11. Roberto Machado, 2017. "Crecimiento económico e infraestructura de transportes y comunicaciones en el Perú," Revista Economía, Fondo Editorial - Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú, vol. 40(79), pages 9-46.
    12. Luis M. Cubeddu & Alexander Culiuc & Ghada Fayad & Yuan Gao & Kalpana Kochhar & Annette J Kyobe & Ceyda Oner & Roberto Perrelli & Sarah Sanya & Evridiki Tsounta & Zhongxia Zhang, 2014. "Emerging Markets in Transition; Growth Prospects and Challenges," IMF Staff Discussion Notes 14/6, International Monetary Fund.
    13. Ms. Pritha Mitra & Amr Hosny & Gohar Abajyan & Mr. Mark Fischer, 2015. "Estimating Potential Growth in the Middle East and Central Asia," IMF Working Papers 2015/062, International Monetary Fund.

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