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Bank Capital and Uncertainty

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  • Mr. Fabian Valencia

Abstract

An important role for bank capital is that of a buffer against unexpected losses. As uncertainty about these losses increases, the theory predicts an increase in the optimal level of bank capital. This paper investigates this implication empirically with U.S. Commercial Banks data and finds statistically significant and robust evidence supporting it. A counterfactual experiment suggests that a decline in uncertainty to the lowest level measured in the sample generates an average reduction in bank capital ratios of slightly over 1 percentage point. However, I also find suggestive evidence that the intensity of this precautionary motive is stronger during recessions. From a policy perspective, these results suggest that the effectiveness of countercyclical capital requirements during bad times will be undermined by banks desire to hold more capital in response to increased uncertainty.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Fabian Valencia, 2010. "Bank Capital and Uncertainty," IMF Working Papers 2010/208, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2010/208
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    Cited by:

    1. von Furstenberg, George M., 2011. "Contingent capital to strengthen the private safety net for financial institutions: Cocos to the rescue?," Discussion Paper Series 2: Banking and Financial Studies 2011,01, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    2. Coffinet, Jérôme & Coudert, Virginie & Pop, Adrian & Pouvelle, Cyril, 2012. "Two-way interplays between capital buffers and credit growth: Evidence from French banks," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 22(5), pages 1110-1125.
    3. Valencia, Fabián, 2014. "Banks' Precautionary Capital And Credit Crunches," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 18(8), pages 1726-1750, December.

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