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Today versus Tomorrow - The Sensitivity of the Non-Oil Current Account Balance to Permanent and Current Income

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  • Mr. Alun H. Thomas
  • Mr. Tamim Bayoumi

Abstract

This paper applies the Permanent Income Model to the non-oil current accounts of the major oil exporters to assess the extent to which national consumption decisions in these countries are made on the basis of permanent versus current income. A test of whether the return on oil wealth and oil balance coefficients sum to unity is accepted for all specifications that adjust the return on wealth for future population changes. For oil-exporting countries outside Africa, around half of the fluctuations in the private sector non-oil balance are driven by considerations of changes in permanent income (the return on oil wealth) rather than current income. By contrast, for the public sector and African countries permanent income has little or no effect.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Alun H. Thomas & Mr. Tamim Bayoumi, 2009. "Today versus Tomorrow - The Sensitivity of the Non-Oil Current Account Balance to Permanent and Current Income," IMF Working Papers 2009/248, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2009/248
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Chinn, Menzie D. & Prasad, Eswar S., 2003. "Medium-term determinants of current accounts in industrial and developing countries: an empirical exploration," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(1), pages 47-76, January.
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    5. Campbell, John Y & Mankiw, N Gregory, 1990. "Permanent Income, Current Income, and Consumption," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 8(3), pages 265-279, July.
    6. Mr. Alun H. Thomas & Mr. Jun I Kim & Aqib Aslam, 2008. "Equilibrium Non-Oil Current Account Assessments for Oil Producing Countries," IMF Working Papers 2008/198, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Bayoumi, Tamim & Sgherri, Silvia, 2006. "Mr Ricardo's Great Adventure: Estimating Fiscal Multipliers in a Truly Intertemporal Model," CEPR Discussion Papers 5839, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    8. Mr. Alonso A Segura Vasi, 2006. "Management of Oil Wealth Under the Permanent Income Hypothesis: The Case of São Tomé and Príncipe," IMF Working Papers 2006/183, International Monetary Fund.
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    Cited by:

    1. Cherif, Reda & Hasanov, Fuad, 2013. "Oil Exporters’ Dilemma: How Much to Save and How Much to Invest," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 120-131.
    2. Mr. Paul Cashin & Samya Beidas-Strom, 2011. "Are Middle Eastern Current Account Imbalances Excessive?," IMF Working Papers 2011/195, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Mr. Robert C York & Ms. Misa Takebe, 2011. "External Sustainability of Oil-Producing Sub-Saharan African Countries," IMF Working Papers 2011/207, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Eberechukwu Uneze & Maxwell Ekor, 2012. "The determinants of current account balance in an oil-rich exporting country: the case of Nigeria," OPEC Energy Review, Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, vol. 36(4), pages 456-478, December.
    5. Araujo, Juliana D. & Li, Bin Grace & Poplawski-Ribeiro, Marcos & Zanna, Luis-Felipe, 2016. "Current account norms in natural resource rich and capital scarce economies," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 120(C), pages 144-156.

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