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How Much Is Enough? Monte Carlo Simulations of an Oil Stabilization Fund for Nigeria

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  • Mr. Ulrich Bartsch

Abstract

In oil-dependent countries, a major issue is how to stabilize fiscal spending when government revenue fluctuates along with the international price of oil. A stabilization fund would allow the government to pull through an oil price trough and absorb windfall revenue when prices are high. This paper focuses on two key issues. First, the paper proposes to base government spending on moving averages of past oil prices that are shown to behave nearly as a random walk. Second, it uses Monte Carlo simulations of a fiscal policy model to look at the probability that a given level of assets in the stabilization fund is exhausted over a certain number of years. The simulations show that with a fiscal policy based on moving averages over three to five years, a stabilization fund of about 75 percent of 2004 oil revenue would be adequate, which, in Nigeria, would equate to US$16-18 billion.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Ulrich Bartsch, 2006. "How Much Is Enough? Monte Carlo Simulations of an Oil Stabilization Fund for Nigeria," IMF Working Papers 2006/142, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2006/142
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Deaton, Angus, 1991. "Saving and Liquidity Constraints," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(5), pages 1221-1248, September.
    2. Mr. Rolando Ossowski & Mr. Steven A Barnett & Mr. James Daniel & Mr. Jeffrey M. Davis, 2001. "Stabilization and Savings Funds for Nonrenewable Resources," IMF Occasional Papers 2001/004, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Mr. Rodrigo O. Valdes & Mr. Eduardo E Engel, 2000. "Optimal Fiscal Strategy for Oil Exporting Countries," IMF Working Papers 2000/118, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Mr. James Daniel, 2001. "Hedging Government Oil Price Risk," IMF Working Papers 2001/185, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Mr. Robert P Flood & Ms. Nancy P. Marion, 2002. "Holding International Reserves in an Era of High Capital Mobility," IMF Working Papers 2002/062, International Monetary Fund.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ernest Aryeetey & Ishmael Ackah, 2018. "The boom, the bust, and the dynamics of oil resource management in Ghana," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2018-89, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    2. Rick Van der Ploeg & Ton van den Bremer, 2016. "Saving Alberta’s Resource Revenues:," OxCarre Working Papers 179, Oxford Centre for the Analysis of Resource Rich Economies, University of Oxford.
    3. van der Ploeg, Frederick & ,, 2016. "Saving Alberta’s Resource Revenues: Role of Intergenerational and Liquidity Funds," CEPR Discussion Papers 11522, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. van den Bremer, Ton S. & van der Ploeg, Frederick, 2016. "Saving Alberta's resource revenues: Role of intergenerational and liquidity funds," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 132-146.
    5. Ernest Aryeetey & Ishmael Ackah, 2018. "The boom, the bust, and the dynamics of oil resource management in Ghana," WIDER Working Paper Series 89, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    6. Mr. Christian B. Mulder & Mr. Amadou N Sy & Miss Yinqiu Lu & Mr. Udaibir S Das, 2009. "Setting Up a Sovereign Wealth Fund: Some Policy and Operational Considerations," IMF Working Papers 2009/179, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Stuart Landon and Constance Smith, 2015. "Rule-Based Resource Revenue Stabilization Funds: A Welfare Comparison," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2).
    8. Jiří Sýkora, 2013. "Oil in Timor-Leste: A Ticket to Prosperity?," Acta Oeconomica Pragensia, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2013(3), pages 68-85.
    9. International Monetary Fund, 2008. "Islamic Republic of Iran: Selected Issues," IMF Staff Country Reports 2008/285, International Monetary Fund.
    10. Barrera, Carlos, 2010. "¿Respuesta asimétrica de precios domésticos de combustibles ante choques en el WTI?," Working Papers 2010-016, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
    11. Magda Kandil, 2020. "Determinants of policy variations and macroeconomic implications," International Journal of Economic Policy Studies, Springer, vol. 14(1), pages 199-238, February.

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    Keywords

    WP; price; oil price; revenue;
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