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Following Germany’s Lead: Using International Monetary Linkages to Identify the Effect of Monetary Policy on the Economy

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  • International Monetary Fund

Abstract

Forward-looking behavior on the part of the monetary authority leads least squares estimates to understate the true growth consequences of monetary policy interventions. We present instrumental variables estimates of the impact of interest rates on real output growth for several European countries, using German interest rates as the instrument. We show that the difference between least squares and instrumental variables estimates provides bounds for the degree of endogeneity in monetary policy. The results confirm a considerable downward bias of estimates that do not account for potential forward-looking monetary policy decisions. The bias is higher for countries whose monetary policy was more independent of Germany.

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  • International Monetary Fund, 2005. "Following Germany’s Lead: Using International Monetary Linkages to Identify the Effect of Monetary Policy on the Economy," IMF Working Papers 2005/086, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2005/086
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    1. Maurice Obstfeld & Jay C. Shambaugh & Alan M. Taylor, 2004. "Monetary Sovereignty, Exchange Rates, and Capital Controls: The Trilemma in the Interwar Period," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 51(s1), pages 75-108, June.
    2. Olivier J. Blanchard & Mark W. Watson, 1986. "Are Business Cycles All Alike?," NBER Chapters, in: The American Business Cycle: Continuity and Change, pages 123-180, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    Cited by:

    1. Arend, Mario, 2005. "Efectos de una nueva medida de shock monetario bajo el esquema de metas de inflación en Chile [Effects of a New Measure of Monetary Shock Under Inflation Targeting in Chile]," MPRA Paper 27156, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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