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An Analysis of the Underground Economy and its Macroeconomic Consequences

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  • Ms. Era Dabla-Norris
  • Mr. Andrew Feltenstein

Abstract

This paper develops a dynamic computable general equilibrium model in which optimizing agents evade taxes by operating in the underground economy. The cost to firms of evading taxes is that they find themselves subject to credit rationing from banks. Our model simulations show that in the absence of budgetary flexibility to adjust expenditures, raising tax rates too high drives firms into the underground economy, thereby reducing the tax base. Aggregate investment in the economy is lowered because of credit rationing. Taxes that are too low eliminate the underground economy, but result in unsustainable budget and trade deficits. Thus, the optimal rate of taxation, from a macroeconomic point of view, may lead to some underground activity.

Suggested Citation

  • Ms. Era Dabla-Norris & Mr. Andrew Feltenstein, 2003. "An Analysis of the Underground Economy and its Macroeconomic Consequences," IMF Working Papers 2003/023, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2003/023
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ball, Sheryl & Feltenstein, Andrew, 2001. "Bank failures and fiscal austerity: policy prescriptions for a developing country," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(2), pages 247-270, November.
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    3. Blejer, Mario I. & Feldman, Ernesto V. & Feltenstein, Andrew, 2002. "Exogenous shocks, contagion, and bank soundness: a macroeconomic framework," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 33-52, February.
    4. Loayza, Norman V., 1996. "The economics of the informal sector: a simple model and some empirical evidence from Latin America," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 129-162, December.
    5. Feltenstein, Andrew & Shah, Anwar, 1993. "General Equilibrium Effects of Taxation on Investment in a Developing Country: The Case of Pakistan," Public Finance = Finances publiques, , vol. 48(3), pages 366-386.
    6. Simon Johnson & Daniel Kaufman & Andrei Shleifer, 1997. "The Unofficial Economy in Transition," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 28(2), pages 159-240.
    7. Sarte, Pierre-Daniel G., 2000. "Informality and rent-seeking bureaucracies in a model of long-run growth," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 173-197, August.
    8. Mehnaz Ahmed & Qazi Masood Ahmed, 1995. "Estimation of the Black Economy of Pakistan through the Monetary Approach," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 34(4), pages 791-807.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Slim, Sadri, 2015. "Un modelo Mundell-Fleming con economía ilegal y lavado de dinero [Modeling illegal economy and money laundering: a Mundell-Fleming framework]," MPRA Paper 64675, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Damir Piplica, 2011. "Corruption And Inflation In Transition Eu Member Countries," Economic Thought and Practice, Department of Economics and Business, University of Dubrovnik, vol. 20(2), pages 469-506, december.
    3. M. Ali Kemal, 2007. "A Fresh Assessment of the Underground Economy and Tax Evasion in Pakistan : Causes, Consequences, and Linkages with the Formal Economy," Microeconomics Working Papers 22200, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
    4. Folorunsho Monsuru Ajide & James Temitope Dada & Johnson Kolawole Olowookere, 2022. "Shadow economy and foreign direct investment in Nigerian manufacturing industry," International Journal of Economics and Business Research, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 23(2), pages 156-180.
    5. Dario Cziraky & Max Gillman, 2004. "Inflation and Endogenous Growth in Underground Economies," wiiw Balkan Observatory Working Papers 50, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw.
    6. Era Dabla-Norris & Mark Gradstein & Fedor Miryugin & Florian Misch, 2019. "Productivity and Tax Evasion," CESifo Working Paper Series 8002, CESifo.
    7. Donici, Gabriel-Andrei/GA, 2012. "The effects of the underground economy on economic competitiviness," MPRA Paper 36025, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Vesa Kanniainen & Jenni Pääkkönen, 2004. "Anonymous Money, Moral Sentiments and Welfare," CESifo Working Paper Series 1258, CESifo.
    9. Manamba EPAPHRA & Moga Tano JILENGA, 2017. "Currency Demand, the Subterranean Economy and Tax Evasion: The Case of Tanzania," Journal of Economic and Social Thought, KSP Journals, vol. 4(2), pages 187-211, June.
    10. Onwuka , Ifeanyi & Ayeni, Emmanuel, 2023. "Financial Development and Shadow Economy in Africa: Evidence from Panel Quantile Regression," Journal of Economic Development, The Economic Research Institute, Chung-Ang University, vol. 48(2), pages 123-141, June.
    11. Salahodjaev, Raufhon, 2015. "Intelligence and Shadow Economy: a Cross-Country Empirical Assessment," MPRA Paper 61976, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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