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Hyperinflation in Zimbabwe: Money Demand, Seigniorage and Aid shocks

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  • Tara McIndoe

    (Trinity College Dublin)

Abstract

Zimbabwe has recently experienced record hyperinflation of 80 billion percent a month. This paper uses new data from Zimbabwe to investigate money demand under hyperinflation using an ARDL estimation for the period 1980-2008. The results produce plausible convergence rates and long-run elasticities, indicating that real money balances are cointegrated with the inflation rate. Evidence is also presented that suggests prices are being driven by increases in the money supply rather than by changes in price setting behaviour. The paper additionally uses the estimated elasticity on the inflation variable to calculate the maximum level of seigniorage revenue that could be raised in the economy. Actual seigniorage levels increased dramatically after 2000, with inflation eventually exceeding the rate required to maximize this revenue stream. This is discussed in relation to international nancing constraints and the collapse of the domestic tax base.

Suggested Citation

  • Tara McIndoe, 2009. "Hyperinflation in Zimbabwe: Money Demand, Seigniorage and Aid shocks," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp293, IIIS.
    • Handle: RePEc:iis:dispap:iiisdp293
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
    2. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Hafez Rehman, 2005. "Stability of the money demand function in Asian developing countries," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(7), pages 773-792.
    3. R Mabugu, 2001. "Macroeconomic Effects Of A Devaluation In Zimbabwe A Cge Analysis," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 69(4), pages 708-733, December.
    4. Khan, Mohsin S, 1980. "Dynamic Stability in the Cagan Model of Hyperinflation," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 21(3), pages 577-582, October.
    5. Mr. Arto Kovanen, 2004. "Zimbabwe: A Quest for a Nominal Anchor," IMF Working Papers 2004/130, International Monetary Fund.
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    Cited by:

    1. Noell Machinjike & Wellington G. Bonga, 2021. "Fiscal Discipline and Budget Processes: Evidence from Zimbabwe," International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science, International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science (IJRISS), vol. 5(2), pages 607-616, February.
    2. Lucia Mandongwe & Stanley Murairwa & Phamela Dube, 2022. "A Theoretical Assessment of the Operational Budgets in Hyperinflation Countries, Lessons from Boarding Schools in Zimbabwe: Effects and Survival Strategies," International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science, International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science (IJRISS), vol. 6(6), pages 669-677, June.
    3. Miller, Stephen Matteo & Ndhlela, Thandinkosi, 2020. "Money demand and seignorage maximization before the end of the Zimbabwean dollar," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    4. Maruta, Admasu Asfaw & Banerjee, Rajabrata & Cavoli, Tony, 2020. "Foreign aid, institutional quality and economic growth: Evidence from the developing world," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 444-463.
    5. Luca Benati, 2018. "Cagan s Paradox Revisited," Diskussionsschriften dp1826, Universitaet Bern, Departement Volkswirtschaft.

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