Credit Risk Calibration based on CDS Spreads
As observed in the financial crisis, CDS spreads tend to increase simutaneously as a reaction to common shocks. Focusing on the spillover effects triggered by extreme events, we propose a credit risk analysis tool by applying credit default swap spread returns to the concept of 4CoVaR suggested by Adrian and Brunnermeier (2011). The interconnection and mutual impact on credit spreads are investigated based on CDS spreads of the biggest derivative dealers in the market. By including factors identified as determinants of CDS spreads to the set of explanatory variables such as equity return and equity volatility and implementing the variable selection technique least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO), the results demonstrate an improved performance in CDS spread VaR calculation. The enhancement is more significant in pre-crisis period but both methodologies tend to overestimate risk in turbulent period. Further, non-linear effects between CDS spreads in extreme events are captured by the introduction of a partial linear model in the CoVaR calculation.
|Date of creation:||May 2014|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Web page: http://sfb649.wiwi.hu-berlin.de
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Klaus Düllmann & Agnieszka Sosinska, 2007. "Credit default swap prices as risk indicators of listed German banks," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer, vol. 21(3), pages 269-292, September.
- Upper, Christian & Worms, Andreas, 2002.
"Estimating Bilateral Exposures in the German Interbank Market: Is there a Danger of Contagion?,"
Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies
2002,09, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
- Christian Upper & Andreas Worms, 2001. "Estimating bilateral exposures in the German interbank market: is there a danger of contagion?," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Marrying the macro- and micro-prudential dimensions of financial stability, volume 1, pages 211-229 Bank for International Settlements.
- Upper, Christian & Worms, Andreas, 2004. "Estimating bilateral exposures in the German interbank market: Is there a danger of contagion?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 48(4), pages 827-849, August.
- Koenker, Roger W & Bassett, Gilbert, Jr, 1978. "Regression Quantiles," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(1), pages 33-50, January.
- Breitenfellner, Bastian & Wagner, Niklas, 2012. "Explaining aggregate credit default swap spreads," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 22(C), pages 18-29.
- Nikolaus Hautsch & Julia Schaumburg & Melanie Schienle, 2011.
"Financial Network Systemic Risk Contributions,"
SFB 649 Discussion Papers
SFB649DP2011-072, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
- Hautsch, Nikolaus & Schaumburg, Julia & Schienle, Melanie, 2013. "Financial network systemic risk contributions," CFS Working Paper Series 2013/20, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
- Nikolaus Hautsch & Julia Schaumburg & Melanie Schienle, 2012. "Financial Network Systemic Risk Contributions," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2012-053, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
- Arora, Navneet & Gandhi, Priyank & Longstaff, Francis A., 2012. "Counterparty credit risk and the credit default swap market," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(2), pages 280-293.
- Alexander, Carol & Kaeck, Andreas, 2008. "Regime dependent determinants of credit default swap spreads," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 1008-1021, June.
- Rama Cont & Thomas Kokholm, 2013. "Central Clearing of OTC Derivatives: bilateral vs multilateral netting," Papers 1304.5065, arXiv.org.
- Christoffersen, Peter F, 1998. "Evaluating Interval Forecasts," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 841-62, November.
- Li, Youjuan & Liu, Yufeng & Zhu, Ji, 2007. "Quantile Regression in Reproducing Kernel Hilbert Spaces," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 102, pages 255-268, March.
- López-Espinosa, Germán & Rubia, Antonio & Valderrama, Laura & Antón, Miguel, 2013. "Good for one, bad for all: Determinants of individual versus systemic risk," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 287-299.
- Yuan, Ming, 2006. "GACV for quantile smoothing splines," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 813-829, February.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2014-026. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (RDC-Team)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.