IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/finlet/v29y2019icp101-110.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Long-run relationships between US financial credit markets and risk factors: Evidence from the quantile ARDL approach

Author

Listed:
  • Mensi, Walid
  • Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain
  • Hammoudeh, Shawkat
  • Hkiri, Besma
  • Hamed Al Yahyaee, Khamis

Abstract

This paper examines the quantile-dependent short- and long-run impact of the FFR, VIX index and crude oil prices on the credit risk of the U.S. banking, financial services and insurance sectors. Using the quantile autoregressive distributed lag model, we find that the federal funds rate and the equity volatility mainly increase the credit risk of the financial sector when the credit risk is on a rising trend. However, oil prices, and to a lesser extent, decrease the credit risk. The short- and long-run impacts of the considered risk factors are time-varying and heterogeneous across the different credit market states.

Suggested Citation

  • Mensi, Walid & Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Hkiri, Besma & Hamed Al Yahyaee, Khamis, 2019. "Long-run relationships between US financial credit markets and risk factors: Evidence from the quantile ARDL approach," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 101-110.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:29:y:2019:i:c:p:101-110
    DOI: 10.1016/j.frl.2019.03.007
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1544612318304331
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.frl.2019.03.007?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Cho, Jin Seo & Kim, Tae-hwan & Shin, Yongcheol, 2015. "Quantile cointegration in the autoregressive distributed-lag modeling framework," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 188(1), pages 281-300.
    2. Kwiatkowski, Denis & Phillips, Peter C. B. & Schmidt, Peter & Shin, Yongcheol, 1992. "Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root : How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1-3), pages 159-178.
    3. Debbie Dupuis & Eric Jacquier & Nicolas Papageorgiou & Bruno Rémillard, 2009. "Empirical evidence on the dependence of credit default swaps and equity prices," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(8), pages 695-712, August.
    4. Lahiani, Amine & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Gupta, Rangan, 2016. "Linkages between financial sector CDS spreads and macroeconomic influence in a nonlinear setting," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 443-456.
    5. Xiao, Zhijie, 2009. "Quantile cointegrating regression," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 150(2), pages 248-260, June.
    6. Merton, Robert C, 1974. "On the Pricing of Corporate Debt: The Risk Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 29(2), pages 449-470, May.
    7. Forte, Santiago & Peña, Juan Ignacio, 2009. "Credit spreads: An empirical analysis on the informational content of stocks, bonds, and CDS," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(11), pages 2013-2025, November.
    8. Francis A. Longstaff & Jun Pan & Lasse H. Pedersen & Kenneth J. Singleton, 2011. "How Sovereign Is Sovereign Credit Risk?," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 3(2), pages 75-103, April.
    9. Srivastava, Sasha & Lin, Hai & Premachandra, Inguruwatte M. & Roberts, Helen, 2016. "Global risk spillover and the predictability of sovereign CDS spread: International evidence," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 371-390.
    10. Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Liu, Tengdong & Chang, Chia-Lin & McAleer, Michael, 2013. "Risk spillovers in oil-related CDS, stock and credit markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 526-535.
    11. Pierre Collin-Dufresn & Robert S. Goldstein & J. Spencer Martin, 2001. "The Determinants of Credit Spread Changes," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(6), pages 2177-2207, December.
    12. Miroslav Mateev, 2019. "Volatility relation between credit default swap and stock market: new empirical tests," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 43(4), pages 681-712, October.
    13. Jun Pan & Kenneth J. Singleton, 2008. "Default and Recovery Implicit in the Term Structure of Sovereign CDS Spreads," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 63(5), pages 2345-2384, October.
    14. Koenker, Roger W & Bassett, Gilbert, Jr, 1978. "Regression Quantiles," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(1), pages 33-50, January.
    15. Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain & Nor, Safwan Mohd & Ferrer, Roman & Hammoudeh, Shawkat, 2017. "Asymmetric determinants of CDS spreads: U.S. industry-level evidence through the NARDL approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 211-230.
    16. Zhu, Huiming & Peng, Cheng & You, Wanhai, 2016. "Quantile behaviour of cointegration between silver and gold prices," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 19(C), pages 119-125.
    17. Miroslav Mateev & Elena Marinova, 2019. "Relation between Credit Default Swap Spreads and Stock Prices: A Non-linear Perspective," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 43(1), pages 1-26, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Huthaifa Sameeh Alqaralleh, 2024. "From volatility to stability: understanding the role of macroeconomic factors in sovereign CDS spreads," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 14(3), pages 665-707, September.
    2. Guesmi, Khaled & Dhaoui, Abderrazak & Goutte, Stéphane & Abid, Ilyes, 2018. "On the determinants of industry-CDS index spreads: Evidence from a nonlinear setting," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 233-254.
    3. Sabkha, Saker & de Peretti, Christian & Hmaied, Dorra, 2019. "Nonlinearities in the oil effects on the sovereign credit risk: A self-exciting threshold autoregression approach," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 106-133.
    4. Riedel, Christoph & Thuraisamy, Kannan S. & Wagner, Niklas, 2013. "Credit cycle dependent spread determinants in emerging sovereign debt markets," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 17(C), pages 209-223.
    5. Augustin, Patrick & Subrahmanyam, Marti G. & Tang, Dragon Yongjun & Wang, Sarah Qian, 2014. "Credit Default Swaps: A Survey," Foundations and Trends(R) in Finance, now publishers, vol. 9(1-2), pages 1-196, December.
    6. Díaz, Antonio & Groba, Jonatan & Serrano, Pedro, 2013. "What drives corporate default risk premia? Evidence from the CDS market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 529-563.
    7. Georgios Bertsatos & Plutarchos Sakellaris & Mike G. Tsionas, 2022. "Extensions of the Pesaran, Shin and Smith (2001) bounds testing procedure," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 62(2), pages 605-634, February.
    8. Nader Naifar & Shawkat Hammoudeh & Aviral Kumar Tiwari, 2019. "Do Energy and Banking CDS Sector Spreads Reflect Financial Risks and Economic Policy Uncertainty? A Time-Scale Decomposition Approach," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 54(2), pages 507-534, August.
    9. Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain & Mensi, Walid & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Balcilar, Mehmet & Shahbaz, Muhammad, 2018. "Distribution specific dependence and causality between industry-level U.S. credit and stock markets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 114-133.
    10. Shi, Yukun & Stasinakis, Charalampos & Xu, Yaofei & Yan, Cheng, 2022. "Market co-movement between credit default swap curves and option volatility surfaces," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    11. Mighri, Zouheir & Ragoubi, Hanen & Sarwar, Suleman & Wang, Yihan, 2022. "Quantile Granger causality between US stock market indices and precious metal prices," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    12. Lafuente, Juan Angel & Serrano, Pedro, 2015. "On the compensation for illiquidity in sovereign credit markets," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 83-100.
    13. Guo, Yawei & Li, Jianping & Li, Yehua & You, Wanhai, 2021. "The roles of political risk and crude oil in stock market based on quantile cointegration approach: A comparative study in China and US," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(C).
    14. Gatfaoui, Hayette, 2017. "Equity market information and credit risk signaling: A quantile cointegrating regression approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 48-59.
    15. Zinna, Gabriele, 2014. "Identifying risks in emerging market sovereign and corporate bond spreads," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 20(C), pages 1-22.
    16. Naifar, Nader & Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain & Hammoudeh, Shawkat, 2020. "Dynamic nonlinear impacts of oil price returns and financial uncertainties on credit risks of oil-exporting countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    17. Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain & Nor, Safwan Mohd & Ferrer, Roman & Hammoudeh, Shawkat, 2017. "Asymmetric determinants of CDS spreads: U.S. industry-level evidence through the NARDL approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 211-230.
    18. Pedro Pires & João Pedro Pereira & Luís Filipe Martins, 2015. "The Empirical Determinants of Credit Default Swap Spreads: a Quantile Regression Approach," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 21(3), pages 556-589, June.
    19. Antonio Trujillo-Ponce & Reyes Samaniego-Medina & Clara Cardone-Riportella, 2014. "Examining what best explains corporate credit risk: accounting-based versus market-based models," Journal of Business Economics and Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(2), pages 253-276, April.
    20. Ibhagui, Oyakhilome, 2021. "How do sovereign risk, equity and foreign exchange derivatives markets interact?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 58-78.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Financial credit sectors; Risk factors; Quantile ARDL model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • F37 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Finance Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:29:y:2019:i:c:p:101-110. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/frl .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.