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Judging Japan's FDI: The verdict from a dartboard model


  • Keith Head
  • John Ries


We evaluate Japan's inward and outward FDI performance using theoretical benchmarks based on the premise that management teams headquartered around the world bid for the production facilities located in each country. Our model incorporates the assumption that bids are inversely proportionate to distance. It accurately predicts the multilateral shares of FDI stocks for most important countries. The theory predicts lower shares of FDI for Japan than its share of the world economy. Japan's actual share of outward FDI exceeds its inward share -as the model predicts- but both currently lie below the benchmark predictions.

Suggested Citation

  • Keith Head & John Ries, 2004. "Judging Japan's FDI: The verdict from a dartboard model," Hi-Stat Discussion Paper Series d04-58, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
  • Handle: RePEc:hst:hstdps:d04-58

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. James R. Markusen, 2004. "Multinational Firms and the Theory of International Trade," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262633078, July.
    2. Eaton Jonathan & Tamura Akiko, 1994. "Bilateralism and Regionalism in Japanese and U.S. Trade and Direct Foreign Investment Patterns," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 478-510, December.
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    6. Harrigan, James & Vanjani, Rohit, 2003. "Is Japan's trade (still) different?," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 507-519, December.
    7. Deardorff, Alan V., 2005. "Trade and location: A moving example motivated by Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 169-193, June.
    8. Keith Head & John Ries & Barbara J. Spencer, 2004. "Vertical Networks and US Auto Parts Exports: Is Japan Different?," Journal of Economics & Management Strategy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(1), pages 37-67, March.
    9. Ellison, Glenn & Glaeser, Edward L, 1997. "Geographic Concentration in U.S. Manufacturing Industries: A Dartboard Approach," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 105(5), pages 889-927, October.
    10. Jensen, Michael C. & Ruback, Richard S., 1983. "The market for corporate control : The scientific evidence," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(1-4), pages 5-50, April.
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    12. Helpman, Elhanan, 1984. "A Simple Theory of International Trade with Multinational Corporations," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 92(3), pages 451-471, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ronald B. Davies & Delia Ionascu & Helga Kristjánsdóttir, 2008. "Estimating the Impact of Time-Invariant Variables on FDI with Fixed Effects," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 144(3), pages 381-407, October.
    2. Richard Baldwin & Toshihiro Okubo, 2014. "Networked FDI: Sales and Sourcing Patterns of Japanese Foreign Affiliates," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(8), pages 1051-1080, August.
    3. Walid Hejazi, 2005. "Are Regional Concentrations of OECD Exports and Outward FDI Consistent with Gravity?," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 33(4), pages 423-436, December.
    4. Jaroslava Hečková & Alex. Chapčáková & Eva Litavcová, 2016. "Ekonomická integrácia a jej vplyv na cezhraničné fúzie a akvizície v európskom priestore
      [Economic Integration and Its Influence on Cross-Border Mergers and Acquisitions within the European Area]
      ," Politická ekonomie, University of Economics, Prague, vol. 2016(1), pages 19-33.
    5. Mariagiovanna Baccara & Ayse Imrohoroglu & Alistair J. Wilson & Leeat Yariv, 2012. "A Field Study on Matching with Network Externalities," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(5), pages 1773-1804, August.
    6. Head, Keith & Ries, John, 2008. "FDI as an outcome of the market for corporate control: Theory and evidence," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 2-20, January.
    7. Hijzen, Alexander & Görg, Holger & Manchin, Miriam, 2008. "Cross-border mergers and acquisitions and the role of trade costs," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 52(5), pages 849-866, July.
    8. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/c8dmi8nm4pdjkuc9g70aj72cl is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Nicolas Coeurdacier & Roberto A. De Santis & Antonin Aviat, 2009. "Cross-border mergers and acquisitions and European integration," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 24, pages 55-106, January.
    10. Alexander Hijzen & Holger Görg & Miriam Manchin, 2006. "Cross-border mergers and acquisitions and the role of trade costs," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 242, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    11. Nicolas Coeurdacier & Roberto A. De Santis & Antonin Aviat, 2009. "Cross-border mergers and acquisitions and European integration," Post-Print hal-01022660, HAL.

    More about this item


    Foreign direct investment; gravity; mergers and acquisitions; openness;

    JEL classification:

    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
    • F23 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - Multinational Firms; International Business

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