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Growth and the Real Exchange Rate - Evidence from Eleven Countries

  • Mark Crosby

    (University of Melbourne)

  • Glenn Otto

    (The University of New South Wales)

There are conflicting theories about the effect of real exchange rate movements on output growth. Expenditure switching models suggest that a real depreciation leads to an increase in net exports due to the increase in competitiveness of the export sector, and hence to an increase in output growth. Contractionary depreciation models, on the other hand, suggest that real depreciations can reduce output growth. In this paper we examine the evidence on the impact of real exchange rate movements on the real economy for a number of countries. We find that different countries have had quite different experiences with respect to the response of output growth to exchange rate changes, and we offer some suggestions as to why this has been the case.

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Paper provided by Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research in its series Working Papers with number 082001.

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Length: 18 pages
Date of creation: Aug 2001
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:hkm:wpaper:082001
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  1. Corsetti, Giancarlo & Pesenti, Paolo & Roubini, Nouriel, 1999. "Paper tigers?: A model of the Asian crisis," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 43(7), pages 1211-1236, June.
  2. Marianne Baxter & Robert G. King, 1995. "Measuring Business Cycles Approximate Band-Pass Filters for Economic Time Series," NBER Working Papers 5022, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Sebastian Edwards, 1987. "Exchange Controls, Devaluations and Real Exchange Rates: The Latin American Experience," UCLA Economics Working Papers 450, UCLA Department of Economics.
  4. Mohsin S. Khan, 1990. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Fund-Supported Adjustment Programs," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 37(2), pages 195-231, June.
  5. Ramon Moreno, 1999. "Depreciation and recessions in East Asia," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 27-40.
  6. Roberto Chang & Andres Velasco, 1998. "The Asian Liquidity Crisis," NBER Working Papers 6796, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Craig Burnside & Martin Eichenbaum & Sergio Rebelo, 1999. "Hedging and Financial Fragility in Fixed Exchange Rate Regimes," NBER Working Papers 7143, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Magda E. Kandil, 2000. "The Asymmetric Effects of Exchange Rate Fluctuations; Theory and Evidence From Developing Countries," IMF Working Papers 00/184, International Monetary Fund.
  9. Steven Radelet & Jeffrey D. Sachs, 1998. "The East Asian Financial Crisis: Diagnosis, Remedies, Prospects," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 29(1), pages 1-90.
  10. Pierre-Richard Agénor, 1991. "Output, devaluation and the real exchange rate in developing countries," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 127(1), pages 18-41, March.
  11. Sweder van Wijnbergen, 1986. "Exchange Rate Management and Stabilization Policies in Developing Countries," NBER Chapters, in: Economic Adjustment and Exchange Rates in Developing Countries, pages 17-42 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Carlos F. Diaz Alejandro, 1963. "A Note on the Impact of Devaluation and the Redistributive Effect," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 71, pages 577.
  13. Thoma, Mark A, 1994. "The Effects of Money Growth on Inflation and Interest Rates across Spectral Frequency Bands," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 26(2), pages 218-31, May.
  14. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1998. "Business Cycle Fluctuations in U.S. Macroeconomic Time Series," NBER Working Papers 6528, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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