The Consumption-Wealth Ratio, Real Estate Wealth, and the Japanese Stock Market
The first contribution of this paper, following the works of Lettau and Ludvigson (2001a,b), is construction of the Japanese consumption-wealth ratio data series and to examine whether it explains Japanese stock market data. We find that the consumption-wealth ratio does not predict future stock returns, but it does help to explain the cross-section of Japanese stock returns. The second contribution of the paper is that we propose new consumption-wealth ratios in terms of which we more explicitly deal with household real estate wealth utilizing Japanese aggregate level data. Such "real estate augmented" consumption-wealth ratios work in a similar way, but perform better than, the consumption-wealth ratio calculated with only financial wealth data. While the scaled factor model with the consumption-wealth ratio proposed by Lettau and Ludvigson performs relatively well with Japanese data, the book-to-market related anomaly pointed out by Jagannathan et al. (1998) remains strong.
|Date of creation:||Jul 2008|
|Note:||July 13, 2008, The previous version of this paper was circulated under the title of "The Consumption-Wealth Ratio and the Japanese Stock Market". We made substantial changes to the calculation of the variables used in the empirical analyses in this current version.|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: 2-1 Naka, Kunitachi City, Tokyo 186|
Web page: http://www.ier.hit-u.ac.jp/
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- Jagannathan, Ravi & Wang, Zhenyu, 1996.
" The Conditional CAPM and the Cross-Section of Expected Returns,"
Journal of Finance,
American Finance Association, vol. 51(1), pages 3-53, March.
- Ravi Jagannathan & Zhenyu Wang, 1996. "The conditional CAPM and the cross-section of expected returns," Staff Report 208, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- Hanno Lustig & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh & Adrien Verdelhan, 2008. "The Wealth-Consumption Ratio," NBER Working Papers 13896, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Lustig, Hanno & van Nieuwerburgh, Stijn & Verdelhan, Adrien, 2012. "The Wealth-Consumption Ratio," CEPR Discussion Papers 9022, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Paul P.J. Gao & Kevin X.D. Huang, 2008. "Aggregate Consumption-Wealth Ratio and the Cross-Section of Stock Returns: Some International Evidence," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 9(1), pages 1-37, May.
- Paul Gao & Kevin X. D. Huang, 2004. "Aggregate consumption-wealth ratio and the cross-section of stock returns: some international evidence," Research Working Paper RWP 04-07, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
- Hanno N. Lustig & Stijn G. Van Nieuwerburgh, 2005. "Housing Collateral, Consumption Insurance, and Risk Premia: An Empirical Perspective," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(3), pages 1167-1219, June.
- Hanno Lustig & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, 2003. "Housing Collateral, Consumption Insurance and Risk Premia: An Empirical Perpective," NBER Working Papers 9959, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Blanchard, Olivier Jean, 1979. "Speculative bubbles, crashes and rational expectations," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 387-389.
- Motohiro Yogo, 2006. "A Consumption-Based Explanation of Expected Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(2), pages 539-580, April. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)
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