Signaling Effects of Foreign Exchange Interventions and Expectation Heterogeneity among Traders
This paper explores whether official intervention signaling effects on short-run exchange rate movements depend on market conditions. We find evidence that announced interventions significantly affect the level and reduce the volatility of the yen/dollar rate when traders' expectations of future exchange rates are relatively heterogeneous. To compensate for the lack of daily exchange rate expectation survey data, we use implied volatility as a proxy since these are highly correlated. These results are consistent with predictions from the market microstructure models with asymmetric information across agents and the signaling hypothesis of foreign exchange interventions. Our findings indicate that the efficacy of intervention hinges not only on the firmness of signals but also on the degree of expectation heterogeneity among traders.
|Date of creation:||Mar 2006|
|Note:||First draft: August 18, 2004; This version: October 27, 2005|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: 2-1 Naka, Kunitachi, Tokyo 186-8603|
Web page: http://cei.ier.hit-u.ac.jp/
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Yin-Wong Cheung & Menzie D. Chinn, 2000.
"Currency Traders and Exchange Rate Dynamics: A Survey of the U.S. Market,"
CESifo Working Paper Series
251, CESifo Group Munich.
- Cheung, Yin-Wong & Chinn, Menzie David, 2001. "Currency traders and exchange rate dynamics: a survey of the US market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 439-471, August.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hit:hitcei:2005-18. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Reiko Suzuki)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.