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Evaluating Implied RNDs by some New Confidence Interval Estimation Techniques

Author

Listed:
  • Andersson, Magnus

    () (European Central Bank)

  • Lomakka, Magnus

    () (AP-fund 1)

Abstract

This paper evaluates the precision of the parametric double lognormal (DLN) and the nonparametric smoothing spline method (SPLINE) for estimating risk-neutral distributions (RNDs) from observed option prices. By using a bootstrap technique confidence bands are estimated for the riskneutral distributions (RNDs) and the width is used as the criterion when evaluating the precision of the two. Previous literature on estimating confidence bands has to a large extent been estimated by Monte Carlo methods. We argue that the bootstrap technique is to be preferred due to the non-normality of the error structure. Our findings favour the SPLINE method, yielding tighter confidence bands. An example showing how the confidence intervals could be used for practical purposes is also provided.

Suggested Citation

  • Andersson, Magnus & Lomakka, Magnus, 2003. "Evaluating Implied RNDs by some New Confidence Interval Estimation Techniques," Working Paper Series 146, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
  • Handle: RePEc:hhs:rbnkwp:0146
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    File URL: http://www.riksbank.com/upload/7424/wp_146.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Robert R. Bliss & Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, 2001. "Recovering risk aversion from options," Working Paper Series WP-01-15, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    2. Ritchey, Robert J, 1990. "Call Option Valuation for Discrete Normal Mixtures," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 13(4), pages 285-296, Winter.
    3. Breeden, Douglas T & Litzenberger, Robert H, 1978. "Prices of State-contingent Claims Implicit in Option Prices," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 51(4), pages 621-651, October.
    4. Melick, William R. & Thomas, Charles P., 1997. "Recovering an Asset's Implied PDF from Option Prices: An Application to Crude Oil during the Gulf Crisis," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 32(01), pages 91-115, March.
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    1. repec:eee:finana:v:56:y:2018:i:c:p:292-302 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Implied risk-neutral distribution; confidence intervals; bootstrap;

    JEL classification:

    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • E59 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Other
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

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