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Fast and Slow Level Shifts in Intraday Stochastic Volatility

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This paper proposes a mixed-frequency stochastic volatility model for intraday returns that captures fast and slow level shifts in the volatility level induced by news from both low-frequency variables and scheduled announcements. A MIDAS component describes slow-moving changes in volatility driven by daily variables, while an announcement component captures fast eventdriven volatility bursts. Using 5-minute crude oil futures returns, we show that accounting for both fast and slow level shifts significantly improves volatility forecasts at intraday and daily horizons. The superior forecasts also translate into higher Sharpe ratios using the volatilitymanaged portfolio strategy.

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  • Martins, Igor F. B. Martins & Virbickaitè, Audronè & Nguyen, Hoang & Hedibert, Freitas Lopes, 2025. "Fast and Slow Level Shifts in Intraday Stochastic Volatility," Working Papers 2025:12, Örebro University, School of Business.
    • Handle: RePEc:hhs:oruesi:2025_012
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    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill

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