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TAR models and real exchange rates


  • Johansson, Martin

    (Department of Economics, Lund University)


The recent past has seen an increased interest in piecewise linear real exchange rate models. By invoking Heckscher's (1916) 'commodity points' it has been argued that a threshold autoregressive (TAR) model should be used to study movements in the real exchange rate. This paper examines the problems of fitting TAR models to real exchange rates. We find that the power of the tests for TAR behavior can be very low for realistic parameter settings. Moreover the confidence intervalls for the threshold parameter are too wide to be used for economic analysis.

Suggested Citation

  • Johansson, Martin, 2001. "TAR models and real exchange rates," Working Papers 2001:21, Lund University, Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:hhs:lunewp:2001_021

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Kenneth Rogoff, 1996. "The Purchasing Power Parity Puzzle," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 34(2), pages 647-668, June.
    2. Chen, Show-Lin & Wu, Jyh-Lin, 2000. "A Re-Examination of Purchasing Power Parity in Japan and Taiwan," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 271-284, April.
    3. Pippenger, Michael K & Goering, Gregory E, 1993. "A Note on the Empirical Power of Unit Root Tests under Threshold Processes," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 55(4), pages 473-481, November.
    4. Michael Pippenger & Gregory Goering, 1998. "Exchange Rate Forecasting: Results from a Threshold Autoregressive Model," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 9(2), pages 157-170, April.
    5. Michael, Panos & Nobay, A Robert & Peel, David A, 1997. "Transactions Costs and Nonlinear Adjustment in Real Exchange Rates: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 105(4), pages 862-879, August.
    6. D. A. Peel & A. E. H. Speight, 1998. "The nonlinear time series properties of unemployment rates: some further evidence," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(2), pages 287-294, February.
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    Cited by:

    1. Angelos Kanas, 2009. "Real exchange rate, stationarity, and economic fundamentals," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 33(4), pages 393-409, October.
    2. Levy Yeyati, Eduardo & Schmukler, Sergio L. & Van Horen, Neeltje, 2009. "International financial integration through the law of one price: The role of liquidity and capital controls," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 432-463, July.

    More about this item


    PPP; real exchange rate; threshold autoregression;

    JEL classification:

    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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