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On the Role of Public Opinion Polls in Political Competition

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  • Tangerås, Thomas

    (The Research Institute of Industrial Economics, IUI)

Abstract

This paper presents a model of strategic positioning during an election campaign in which candidates use results from opinion polls to extract information about voter preferences. It is shown that the distance between policy announcements decreases over the course of the campaign: candidates announce initial policies at either extreme of the political spectrum and commit to moderate final policies. An "underdog" effect arises: the difference in candidate popularity decreases as the campaign evolves. A puplic opinion poll constitutes a Pareto improvement if final policies are expected to become more moderate after the introduction of the poll.

Suggested Citation

  • Tangerås, Thomas, 1998. "On the Role of Public Opinion Polls in Political Competition," Seminar Papers 655, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies.
    • Handle: RePEc:hhs:iiessp:0655
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Opinion Polls; Election Campaigns; Underdog Effect; Welfare;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior

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