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Military Factions and Coups: Pathways to Power in Thailand

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We study the effect of military factionalization on the likelihood of military coups. Thailand’s military is characterized by the internal power struggle between factions for control of leadership positions an annual reshuffle. Utilizing a unique largescale dataset of all changes in Thai military leadership positions from 1968 to 2018, we identify key factions within the military and examine their potential role in military coups. Factional strength as measured by control of top military positions is positively associated with the likelihood of a military coup. Moreover, factional strength when measured by senior-level positions is also positively related to the likelihood of a military coup. By estimating a panel vector autoregression it is shown that the relationship between military factional strength and coups is unidirectional. We argue that these findings reflect the importance of understanding the dynamic mechanisms within the structure of the armed forces when examining the likelihood of a new coups d’état in countries characterized by recurring military power grabs.

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  • Johansson, Anders C. & Engvall, Anders, 2022. "Military Factions and Coups: Pathways to Power in Thailand," Stockholm School of Economics Asia Working Paper Series 2022-54, Stockholm School of Economics, Stockholm China Economic Research Institute.
    • Handle: RePEc:hhs:hascer:2022-054
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    1. Gabriel Leon, 2014. "Loyalty for sale? Military spending and coups d’etat," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 159(3), pages 363-383, June.
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    5. Zuk, Gary & Thompson, William R., 1982. "The Post-Coup Military Spending Question: A Pooled Cross-Sectional Time Series Analysis," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 76(1), pages 60-74, March.
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    JEL classification:

    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • H56 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - National Security and War
    • N40 - Economic History - - Government, War, Law, International Relations, and Regulation - - - General, International, or Comparative

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