IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hhs/gunwpe/0853.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Long-Run Stock Return Distributions: Empirical Inference and Uncertainty

Author

Listed:
  • Dzemski, Andreas

    (Department of Economics, School of Business, Economics and Law, Göteborg University)

  • Farago, Adam

    (Department of Economics, School of Business, Economics and Law, Göteborg University)

  • Hjalmarsson, Erik

    (Department of Economics, School of Business, Economics and Law, Göteborg University)

  • Kiss, Tamas

    (The School of Business, Örebro University, Sweden)

Abstract

We analyze empirical estimation of the distribution of total payoffs for stock investments over very long horizons, such as 30 years. Formal results for recently proposed bootstrap estimators are derived and alternative parametric methods are proposed. All estimators should be viewed as inconsistent for longer investment horizons. Valid confidence bands are derived and should be the focus when performing inference. Empirically, confidence bands around long-run distributions are very wide and point estimates must be interpreted with great caution. Consequently, it is difficult to distinguish long-run aggregate return distributions across countries; long-run U.S. returns are not significantly different from global returns.

Suggested Citation

  • Dzemski, Andreas & Farago, Adam & Hjalmarsson, Erik & Kiss, Tamas, 2025. "Long-Run Stock Return Distributions: Empirical Inference and Uncertainty," Working Papers in Economics 853, University of Gothenburg, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:hhs:gunwpe:0853
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://gupea.ub.gu.se/handle/2077/86564
    File Function: Full text
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Anarkulova, Aizhan & Cederburg, Scott & O’Doherty, Michael S., 2022. "Stocks for the long run? Evidence from a broad sample of developed markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 143(1), pages 409-433.
    2. Merton, Robert C., 1980. "On estimating the expected return on the market : An exploratory investigation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 323-361, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Philip Maymin & Zakhar Maymin, 2012. "Any regulation of risk increases risk," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 26(3), pages 299-313, September.
    2. Christopher F. Baum & Mustafa Caglayan & Oleksandr Talavera, 2010. "On the sensitivity of firms' investment to cash flow and uncertainty," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 62(2), pages 286-306, April.
    3. Muhinyuza, Stanislas & Bodnar, Taras & Lindholm, Mathias, 2020. "A test on the location of the tangency portfolio on the set of feasible portfolios," Applied Mathematics and Computation, Elsevier, vol. 386(C).
    4. Hartwell, Christopher A., 2014. "The impact of institutional volatility on financial volatility in transition economies : a GARCH family approach," BOFIT Discussion Papers 6/2014, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
    5. Koutmos, Dimitrios, 2012. "An intertemporal capital asset pricing model with heterogeneous expectations," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 22(5), pages 1176-1187.
    6. Dimitrios D. Thomakos & Michail S. Koubouros, 2011. "The Role of Realised Volatility in the Athens Stock Exchange," Multinational Finance Journal, Multinational Finance Journal, vol. 15(1-2), pages 87-124, March - J.
    7. Candelon, B. & Hurlin, C. & Tokpavi, S., 2012. "Sampling error and double shrinkage estimation of minimum variance portfolios," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 511-527.
    8. Chiang, Thomas C., 2019. "Empirical analysis of intertemporal relations between downside risks and expected returns—Evidence from Asian markets," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 264-278.
    9. Barone-Adesi, Giovanni & Fusari, Nicola & Mira, Antonietta & Sala, Carlo, 2020. "Option market trading activity and the estimation of the pricing kernel: A Bayesian approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 216(2), pages 430-449.
    10. Baron, Opher & Callen, Jeffrey L. & Segal, Dan, 2023. "Does the bullwhip matter economically? A cross-sectional firm-level analysis," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 259(C).
    11. Campbell, John Y & Kim, Sangjoon & Lettau, Martin, 1998. "Dispersion and Volatility in Stock Returns: An Empirical Investigation," CEPR Discussion Papers 1923, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    12. Chen, Jian & Jiang, Fuwei & Liu, Yangshu & Tu, Jun, 2017. "International volatility risk and Chinese stock return predictability," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 183-203.
    13. Mishra, Anil V., 2016. "Foreign bias in Australian-domiciled mutual fund holdings," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 101-123.
    14. Andrew F. Siegel & Artemiza Woodgate, 2007. "Performance of Portfolios Optimized with Estimation Error," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 53(6), pages 1005-1015, June.
    15. John M. Maheu & Thomas H. McCurdy, 2002. "Nonlinear Features of Realized FX Volatility," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 84(4), pages 668-681, November.
    16. Barndorff-Nielsen, Ole E. & Graversen, Svend Erik & Jacod, Jean & Shephard, Neil, 2006. "Limit Theorems For Bipower Variation In Financial Econometrics," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 22(4), pages 677-719, August.
    17. Wang, Ning & Zhang, Yumo, 2024. "Robust asset-liability management games for n players under multivariate stochastic covariance models," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 67-98.
    18. Liusha Yang & Romain Couillet & Matthew R. McKay, 2015. "A Robust Statistics Approach to Minimum Variance Portfolio Optimization," Papers 1503.08013, arXiv.org.
    19. P. Kearns & A.R. Pagan, 1993. "Australian Stock Market Volatility: 1875–1987," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 69(2), pages 163-178, June.
    20. Christensen, Bent Jesper & Nielsen, Morten Ørregaard & Zhu, Jie, 2015. "The impact of financial crises on the risk–return tradeoff and the leverage effect," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 407-418.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Estimation uncertainty; Long-run stock returns; Quantile estimation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hhs:gunwpe:0853. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Jessica Oscarsson (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/naiguse.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.