IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hhs/ctswps/2013_013.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

An empirical study of predicting car type choice in Sweden using cross-validation and feature-selection

Author

Abstract

In this paper we analyze the prediction problem and focus on building a multinomial logit model (MNL) to predict accurately, the market shares of new cars in the Swedish car fleet in the short-term future. Also, we investigate whether or not different prediction questions lead to different 'best' models specifications. Most of the studies in the field, take an inference-driven approach to select best models to estimate relevant parameters and project the results to the future, whereas we do take a prediction-driven approach. We use feature (variable) selection and cross-validation algorithms to improve predictive performance of models. These methods have been extensively used in other fields such as marketing but are scarce studies employing them in the choice modeling field. Additionally, we introduce four different prediction questions or loss-functions: overall prediction (log-likelihood), brand market share, ethanol (E85)/brand market share, and total share of ethanol cars and the predicted results of these models are compared. The results show that 'best' models prediction depend different prediction questions to answer. Also, they indicate that log-likelihood does not perform accurately when the objective is to predict a sub-section of population such as total share of E85 cars.

Suggested Citation

  • Habibi, Shiva & Sundberg, Marcus & Karlström, Anders, 2013. "An empirical study of predicting car type choice in Sweden using cross-validation and feature-selection," Working papers in Transport Economics 2013:13, CTS - Centre for Transport Studies Stockholm (KTH and VTI), revised 23 Apr 2014.
  • Handle: RePEc:hhs:ctswps:2013_013
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.transportportal.se/swopec/CTS2013-13.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Brownstone, David & Bunch, David S. & Golob, Thomas F., 1994. "A Demand Forecasting System for Clean-Fuel Vehicles," University of California Transportation Center, Working Papers qt79c3g7xv, University of California Transportation Center.
    2. Michael P. Keane & Kenneth I. Wolpin, 2007. "Exploring The Usefulness Of A Nonrandom Holdout Sample For Model Validation: Welfare Effects On Female Behavior," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 48(4), pages 1351-1378, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Hold-out sample; Out of sample prediction; Feature selection; Cross validation; Model selection; Car type choice; Discrete choice modeling; Clean vehicles;

    JEL classification:

    • R41 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Transportation Economics - - - Transportation: Demand, Supply, and Congestion; Travel Time; Safety and Accidents; Transportation Noise

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hhs:ctswps:2013_013. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (CTS). General contact details of provider: http://www.cts.kth.se/ .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.