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Poverty and Fertility - An Instrumental Variables Analysis on Indian Micro Data

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  • Gupta, Nabanita Datta

    (Department of Economics, Aarhus School of Business)

  • Dubey, Amaresh

    (Department of Economics, Aarhus School of Business)

Abstract

The gender of the first two children is used as a natural experiment to estimate the causal effect of fertility on poverty of rural nucleus households in India. In India, male children are viewed as a better source of insurance and support to the family in old age. Thus, having two girls can proxy an exogenous increase in fertility. Using household micro data from the 1993-94 Indian Quinquennial Survey (5th wave), estimation results indicate that fertility significantly positively affects poverty, but that the effect is halved when endogeneity is allowed for. Also, declining fertility accounts for almost a third of the poverty reduction in rural India between 1987/88 and 1993/1994.

Suggested Citation

  • Gupta, Nabanita Datta & Dubey, Amaresh, 2003. "Poverty and Fertility - An Instrumental Variables Analysis on Indian Micro Data," Working Papers 03-11, University of Aarhus, Aarhus School of Business, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:hhs:aareco:2003_011
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    5. Ben-Porath, Yoram, 1976. "Fertility Response to Child Mortality: Micro Data from Israel," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(4), pages 163-178, August.
    6. Bronars, Stephen G & Grogger, Jeff, 1994. "The Economic Consequences of Unwed Motherhood: Using Twin Births as a Natural Experiment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(5), pages 1141-1156, December.
    7. Angrist, Joshua D & Evans, William N, 1998. "Children and Their Parents' Labor Supply: Evidence from Exogenous Variation in Family Size," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(3), pages 450-477, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Baris Ucar & Gianni Betti, 2016. "The effect of a newborn on household poverty: a multi-indicator analysis," Department of Economics University of Siena 742, Department of Economics, University of Siena.
    2. Bruno Arpino & Arnstein Aassve, 2013. "Estimating the causal effect of fertility on economic wellbeing: data requirements, identifying assumptions and estimation methods," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 44(1), pages 355-385, February.
    3. Aassve, Arnstein & Arpino, Bruno, 2008. "Estimation of causal effects of fertility on economic wellbeing: evidence from rural Vietnam," ISER Working Paper Series 2007-27, Institute for Social and Economic Research.
    4. John Anyanwu, 2012. "Working Paper 149 - Accounting for Poverty in Africa: Illustration with Survey Data from Nigeria," Working Paper Series 383, African Development Bank.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Poverty; Fertility; Endogeneity; Natural experiment; Instrumental variables;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • O12 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Microeconomic Analyses of Economic Development

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