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The Conflict Trap in the Greek Civil War 1946-1949: An economic approach

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  • Nicos Christodoulakis

Abstract

The paper provides a quantitative analysis of the armed confrontation that took place in Greece between the Communist Party and the Centre-Right Government during 1946-1949. Using monthly data for battle casualties a dynamic Lotka-Volterra framework is estimated, pointing to the existence of a conflict trap that explains the prolongation of the civil war and its dire consequences for the country. To examine the extent to which the confrontation was influenced by socio-economic factors, a regional analysis finds that political discontent was mainly correlated with pre-war grievances rather than class-structure, while the mobilization of guerilla forces was crucially affected by morphology and the local persecutions by the Government. The economic cost of the conflict is estimated to be close to an annual GDP, and its effect to last for at least a decade, in line with similar findings in contemporary civil wars. The failure to prevent the conflict or stop its escalation is discussed together with some conclusions for the long term repercussions and the current social discontent in Greece.

Suggested Citation

  • Nicos Christodoulakis, 2014. "The Conflict Trap in the Greek Civil War 1946-1949: An economic approach," GreeSE – Hellenic Observatory Papers on Greece and Southeast Europe 83, Hellenic Observatory, LSE.
  • Handle: RePEc:hel:greese:83
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    File URL: http://www.lse.ac.uk/europeanInstitute/research/hellenicObservatory/CMS%20pdf/Publications/GreeSE/GreeSE-No-83.pdf
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    Cited by:

    1. Athanasia Chalari & Clive Sealey & Mike Webb, 2016. "A Comparison of Subjective Experiences and Responses to Austerity of UK and Greek Youth," GreeSE – Hellenic Observatory Papers on Greece and Southeast Europe 102, Hellenic Observatory, LSE.
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    6. Monokroussos, Platon & Thomakos, Dimitrios, D. & Alexopoulos, Thomas A., 2016. "The determinants of loan loss provisions:an analysis of the Greek banking systemin light of the sovereign debt crisis," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 68586, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
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    9. Kougias, Konstantinos, 2017. "‘Real’ flexicurity worlds in action: evidence from Denmark and Greece," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 69576, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Civil war; Greece; production function; equilibrium and stability conditions;

    JEL classification:

    • C62 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Existence and Stability Conditions of Equilibrium
    • E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production
    • N44 - Economic History - - Government, War, Law, International Relations, and Regulation - - - Europe: 1913-
    • O52 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Europe

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