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New evidence on the remedies of the Greek sovereign debt problem

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  • Apergis, Nicholas
  • Cooray, Arusha

Abstract

The goal of the present paper is to investigate not only the dynamics of the Greek public debt, but also what are the appropriate measures required for achieving fiscal consolidation. The empirical estimation is carried out using a macroeconomic dataset spanning the period 1980-2008 and both the 3SLS methodological approach on a theoretical model and the structural VAR methodology to perform forecast tests and to calibrate the future paths of the public debt variable up to 2020. The results suggest that only an aggressive growth policy could permit the country to achieve debt sustainability. The results are expected to have important implications to policy makers for designing effective macroeconomic policy in terms of achieving sustainable levels of public debt.

Suggested Citation

  • Apergis, Nicholas & Cooray, Arusha, 2013. "New evidence on the remedies of the Greek sovereign debt problem," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 55266, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    • Handle: RePEc:ehl:lserod:55266
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    6. Yiannos Katsourides, 2013. "Political Parties and Trade Unions in Cyprus," GreeSE – Hellenic Observatory Papers on Greece and Southeast Europe 74, Hellenic Observatory, LSE.
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    14. Petralias, Athanassios & Petros, Sotirios & Prodromídis, Pródromos, 2013. "Greece in recession: economic predictions, mispredictions and policy implications," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 52626, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    15. Nikos Chrysoloras, 2013. "Rebuilding Eurozone’s Ground Zero. A review of the Greek economic crisis," GreeSE – Hellenic Observatory Papers on Greece and Southeast Europe 66, Hellenic Observatory, LSE.
    16. Kostas Ifantis, 2013. "The US and Turkey in the fog of Regional Uncertainty," GreeSE – Hellenic Observatory Papers on Greece and Southeast Europe 73, Hellenic Observatory, LSE.
    17. Kosmidis, Spyros, 2013. "Government constraints and economic voting in Greece," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 50259, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    18. Julien Etienne, 2013. "Controlled negative reciprocity between the state and civil society: the Greek case," GreeSE – Hellenic Observatory Papers on Greece and Southeast Europe 71, Hellenic Observatory, LSE.
    19. Stella Ladi, 2012. "The Eurozone Crisis and Austerity Politics: A Trigger for Administrative Reform in Greece?," GreeSE – Hellenic Observatory Papers on Greece and Southeast Europe 57, Hellenic Observatory, LSE.
    20. Manussos Marangudakis & Kostas Rontos & Maria Xenitidou, 2013. "State Crisis and Civil Consciousness in Greece," GreeSE – Hellenic Observatory Papers on Greece and Southeast Europe 77, Hellenic Observatory, LSE.
    21. Spyros Kosmidis, 2013. "Government Constraints and Economic Voting in Greece," GreeSE – Hellenic Observatory Papers on Greece and Southeast Europe 70, Hellenic Observatory, LSE.
    22. Melina Skouroliakou, 2012. "The Communication Factor in Greek Foreign Policy: An Analysis," GreeSE – Hellenic Observatory Papers on Greece and Southeast Europe 55, Hellenic Observatory, LSE.
    23. Dimitris Venieris, 2013. "Crisis Social Policy and Social Justice: the case for Greece," GreeSE – Hellenic Observatory Papers on Greece and Southeast Europe 69, Hellenic Observatory, LSE.
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    Cited by:

    1. Athanasia Chalari & Clive Sealey & Mike Webb, 2016. "A Comparison of Subjective Experiences and Responses to Austerity of UK and Greek Youth," GreeSE – Hellenic Observatory Papers on Greece and Southeast Europe 102, Hellenic Observatory, LSE.
    2. Yannis Tsirbas & Dimitri Sotiropoulos, 2015. "What Greek political elites think about Europe and the crisis? An exploratory analysis," GreeSE – Hellenic Observatory Papers on Greece and Southeast Europe 93, Hellenic Observatory, LSE.
    3. Nick Papandreou, 2014. "Life in the First Person and the Art of Political Storytelling:The Rhetoric of Andreas Papandreou," GreeSE – Hellenic Observatory Papers on Greece and Southeast Europe 85, Hellenic Observatory, LSE.
    4. Platon Monokroussos & Dimitrios Thomakos & Thomas A. Alexopoulos & Eleni Lydia Tsioli, 2017. "The Determinants of Loan Loss Provisions: An Analysis of the Greek Banking System in Light of the Sovereign Debt Crisis," Palgrave Macmillan Studies in Banking and Financial Institutions, in: Platon Monokroussos & Christos Gortsos (ed.), Non-Performing Loans and Resolving Private Sector Insolvency, chapter 9, pages 181-225, Palgrave Macmillan.
    5. Christodoulakis, Nicos, 2014. "The conflict trap in the Greek Civil War 1946-1949: an economic approach," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 56228, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    6. Konstantinos Kougias, 2017. "‘Real’ Flexicurity Worlds in action: Evidence from Denmark and Greece," GreeSE – Hellenic Observatory Papers on Greece and Southeast Europe 106, Hellenic Observatory, LSE.
    7. Vassilis Arapoglou, Kostas Gounis, 2015. "Poverty and Homelessness in Athens: Governance and the Rise of an Emergency Model of Social Crisis Management," GreeSE – Hellenic Observatory Papers on Greece and Southeast Europe 90, Hellenic Observatory, LSE.
    8. Thomas A. Alexopoulos & Henry Thompson, 2021. "A macroeconomic simulation for Greece in the wake of its government debt crisis," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 54(3), pages 699-716, August.
    9. Jordaan, Jacob A. & Monastiriotis, Vassilis, 2016. "The domestic productivity effects of FDI in Greece: loca(lisa)tion matters!," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 68816, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    10. Stavros B. Thomadakis, 2015. "Growth, Debt and Sovereignty: Prolegomena to the Greek Crisis," GreeSE – Hellenic Observatory Papers on Greece and Southeast Europe 91, Hellenic Observatory, LSE.
    11. Vassilis Monastiriotis & Angelo Martelli, 2013. "Beyond Rising Unemployment: Unemployment Risk, Crisis and Regional Adjustments in Greece," GreeSE – Hellenic Observatory Papers on Greece and Southeast Europe 80, Hellenic Observatory, LSE.
    12. Rosa VAsilaki, 2016. "Policing the crisis in Greece: The others' side of the story," GreeSE – Hellenic Observatory Papers on Greece and Southeast Europe 98, Hellenic Observatory, LSE.
    13. Chalari, Athanasia & Sealey, Clive & Webb, Mike, 2016. "A comparison of subjective experiencesand responses to austerity of UK andGreek youth," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 68585, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    14. Kougias, Konstantinos, 2017. "‘Real’ flexicurity worlds in action: evidence from Denmark and Greece," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 69576, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    15. Stavros Thomadakis, Dimitrios Gounopoulos, Christos Nounis and Michalis Riginos, 2014. "Financial Innovation and Growth: Listings and IPOs from 1880 to World War II in the Athens Stock Exchange," GreeSE – Hellenic Observatory Papers on Greece and Southeast Europe 86, Hellenic Observatory, LSE.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    primary balance; public debt; structural modeling; Greece;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C30 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - General
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory

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