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The Causes of Slow Growth in Hungary during the Post-Communist Transformation Period

  • Peter Mihalyi

    ()

    (Institute of Economics, Research Center for Economic and Regional Studies, Hungarian Academy of Sciences, Head of Department of Finance at University of Pannonia Visiting Professor of Economics at Economics Department, Central European University)

In his 1966 Inaugural Lecture at Cambridge, entitled On the Causes of the Slow Rate of Economic Growth in the UK, the Hungarian-born British economist, Nicholas Kaldor presented a series of "laws" to account for the growth rate differences between Britain on the one hand, and the more successful economies like the US, Germany or France on the other. He called his method circular cumulative causation, a multi-causal approach where the interdependencies between the explanatory factors were strong, and where variables interlinked in the determination of the outcome. In Kaldor's interpretation, the UK's main problem was the slow growth of productivity, caused by the slow growth of the manufacturing sector. And why did that matter? Because he found that productivity of the manufacturing sector was positively related the growth of the manufacturing sector itself - i.e. the law of increasing returns to scale manifested itself in a strong way. The objective, the methodology and central analytical concepts of the present paper are similar. Now we look for the causes of the slow growth of the Hungarian economy. As it will turn out, increasing returns to scale, which Kaldor took from Young (1928) seminal study, occupies a central position in this paper, too.

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Paper provided by Institute of Economics, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies, Hungarian Academy of Sciences in its series IEHAS Discussion Papers with number 1216.

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Length: 32 pages
Date of creation: Mar 2012
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:has:discpr:1216
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  1. Bernd Aumann & Rolf Scheufele, 2009. "Is East Germany Catching Up? A Time Series Perspective," IWH Discussion Papers 14, Halle Institute for Economic Research.
  2. John Luke Gallup & Jeffrey D. Sachs & Andrew D. Mellinger, 1998. "Geography and Economic Development," NBER Working Papers 6849, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Serguey Braguinsky & Lee G. Branstetter & Andre Regateiro, 2011. "The Incredible Shrinking Portuguese Firm," NBER Working Papers 17265, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Mihályi, Péter, 2005. "Jó úton járunk? Magyarország euróstratégiája
    [Are we on the right track? Hungary s Euro strategy]
    ," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(7), pages 712-731.
  5. Tímár, János & Polónyi, István, 2002. "A népesség, a gazdasági aktivitás és a nemzetközi migráció távlatai Magyarországon, 1950-2050
    [The prospects for population, economic activity and international migration in Hungary, 1950-2050]
    ," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(11), pages 960-971.
  6. John Haltiwanger & Ron S. Jarmin & Javier Miranda, 2010. "Who Creates Jobs? Small vs. Large vs. Young," Working Papers 10-17, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
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