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Dynamically consistent CEU preferences

  • André Lapied

    (GREQAM - Groupement de Recherche en Économie Quantitative d'Aix-Marseille - Université de la Méditerranée - Aix-Marseille II - Université Paul Cézanne - Aix-Marseille III - École des Hautes Études en Sciences Sociales [EHESS] - CNRS : UMR7316)

  • Pascal Toquebeuf

    ()

    (TEPP - Travail, Emploi et Politiques Publiques - CNRS : FR3435 - Université Paris-Est Marne-la-Vallée (UPEMLV), GAINS - Groupe d'Analyse des Itinéraires et des Niveaux Salariaux - Université du Maine)

We give an axiomatic foundation to the updating rule proposed by [Sarin, R. and Wakker, P. P. (1998). Revealed likelihood and knightian uncertainty. Journal of Risk and Uncertainty 16(3):223-250.] for CEU preferences. This rule is dynamically consistent but non-consequentialist, since forgone consequences are relevant for conditioning. Whereas it does not work universally, but only when counterfactuals outcomes are better and/or worse than the ones resulting on the conditioning event, the rule has many interesting features, since it is able to describe Ellsbergtype preferences together with a recursive structure of the criterion.

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Paper provided by HAL in its series Working Papers with number halshs-00856193.

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Date of creation: 23 Nov 2011
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Handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-00856193
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  1. André Lapied & Pascal Toquebeuf, 2011. "A note on "Re-examining the law of iterated expectations for Choquet decision makers"," Working Papers halshs-00856184, HAL.
  2. Gilboa, Itzhak, 1987. "Expected utility with purely subjective non-additive probabilities," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 65-88, February.
  3. Dominiak, Adam & Lefort, Jean-Philippe, 2009. "Unambiguous Events and Dynamic Choquet Preferences," Working Papers 0489, University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics.
  4. Eichberger, Jurgen & Kelsey, David, 1996. "Uncertainty Aversion and Dynamic Consistency," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 37(3), pages 625-40, August.
  5. Epstein Larry G. & Le Breton Michel, 1993. "Dynamically Consistent Beliefs Must Be Bayesian," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 61(1), pages 1-22, October.
  6. Eichberger, Jurgen & Grant, Simon & Kelsey, David, 2007. "Updating Choquet beliefs," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(7-8), pages 888-899, September.
  7. Itzhak Gilboa & David Schmeidler, 1991. "Updating Ambiguous Beliefs," Discussion Papers 924, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
  8. Paolo Ghirardato, 2002. "Revisiting Savage in a conditional world," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 20(1), pages 83-92.
  9. Klibanoff, Peter & Hanany, Eran, 2007. "Updating preferences with multiple priors," Theoretical Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 2(3), September.
  10. repec:tep:teppwp:wp1209 is not listed on IDEAS
  11. Dominiak, Adam & Lefort, Jean-Philippe, 2011. "Unambiguous events and dynamic Choquet preferences," Economics Papers from University Paris Dauphine 123456789/7323, Paris Dauphine University.
  12. Mark J. Machina, 2009. "Risk, Ambiguity, and the Rank-Dependence Axioms," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(1), pages 385-92, March.
  13. Machina, Mark J, 1989. "Dynamic Consistency and Non-expected Utility Models of Choice under Uncertainty," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 27(4), pages 1622-68, December.
  14. Sarin, Rakesh & Wakker, Peter P, 1998. "Revealed Likelihood and Knightian Uncertainty," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 16(3), pages 223-50, July-Aug..
  15. Alain Chateauneuf & Robert Kast & André Lapied, 2001. "Conditioning Capacities and Choquet Integrals: The Role of Comonotony," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 51(2), pages 367-386, December.
  16. Larry G. Epstein & Martin Schneider, 2001. "Recursive Multiple-Priors," RCER Working Papers 485, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
  17. Alexander Zimper, 2011. "Re-examining the law of iterated expectations for Choquet decision makers," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 71(4), pages 669-677, October.
  18. André Lapied & Pascal Toquebeuf, 2010. "Atemporal non-expected utility preferences, dynamic consistency and consequentialism," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 30(2), pages 1661-1669.
  19. David Schmeidler, 1989. "Subjective Probability and Expected Utility without Additivity," Levine's Working Paper Archive 7662, David K. Levine.
  20. Young, Virginia R., 1998. "Families of update rules for non-additive measures: Applications in pricing risks," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 1-14, October.
  21. Nobuo Koida, 2012. "Nest-monotonic two-stage acts and exponential probability capacities," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 50(1), pages 99-124, May.
  22. Sarin, Rakesh & Wakker, Peter P, 1998. "Dynamic Choice and NonExpected Utility," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 17(2), pages 87-119, November.
  23. Wakker, Peter, 1989. "Continuous subjective expected utility with non-additive probabilities," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 1-27, February.
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