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Evolution des attentes sociales et comportement électoral : France, 1978-2002

  • Elvire Guillaud

    ()

    (PSE - Paris-Jourdan Sciences Economiques - CNRS : UMR8545 - École des Hautes Études en Sciences Sociales (EHESS) - École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC) - École normale supérieure [ENS] - Paris, UNIV LYON 2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - Université Lumière - Lyon II)

  • Stefano Palombarini

    (PSE - Paris-Jourdan Sciences Economiques - CNRS : UMR8545 - École des Hautes Études en Sciences Sociales (EHESS) - École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC) - École normale supérieure [ENS] - Paris, UP8 - Université Paris 8, Vincennes-Saint-Denis - Université Paris VIII - Vincennes Saint-Denis)

Cet article met en lumière de manière empirique la multi-dimensionalité et l'évolution de la demande politique d'agents hétérogènes. Dans ce but, on mène une analyse de données sur des sondages post-électoraux français de 1978 à 2002. L'analyse met en évidence les origines de la crise politique française de 2002, avec la présence au second tour du candidat d'extrême droite à l'élection présidentielle. L'élément clé est la cristallisation de groupes sociaux autour des thèmes économiques qui structurent l'espace politique. D'une part, les principales dimensions de la demande évoluent au cours du temps, d'autre part les alliances sociales se modifient autour de ces demandes. La crise économique dans la décennie 1980 et le processus d'intégration européenne au cours de la décennie 1990 conditionnent les demandes politiques et multiplient les lignes de fracture : les alliances sociales de soutien à la droite républicaine et à la gauche de gouvernement éclatent progressivement.

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Paper provided by HAL in its series PSE Working Papers with number halshs-00590295.

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Date of creation: Oct 2006
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Handle: RePEc:hal:psewpa:halshs-00590295
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: http://halshs.archives-ouvertes.fr/halshs-00590295
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  1. John E. Roemer & Karine Van der Straeten, 2006. "The Political Economy of Xenophobia and Distribution: The Case of Denmark," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 108(2), pages 251-277, 07.
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