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On the Probability of the Ostrogorski Paradox

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  • William V Gehrlein
  • Vincent Merlin

    (TEPP - Travail, Emploi et Politiques Publiques - UPEM - Université Paris-Est Marne-la-Vallée - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

The notion of the existence of a Strict Ostrogorski Paradox presents an interesting phenomenon that could lead to some very unsettling outcomes in group decision-making situations. This phenomenon cannot be observed in two-issue situations, and when three-issue situations are considered, the probability that such an outcome will be observed never reaches a likelihood of as much as two percent for large electorates, regardless of the propensity of voters to align their preferences on issues with the standards of political parties. The probability of observing a Strict Ostrogorski Paradox in four-issue situations is nearly zero when using an assumption that exaggerates the likelihood that such a paradoxical outcome will be observed. We conclude that it is very unlikely that a Strict Ostrogorski Paradox would ever be observed in any real voting situation with a large electorate

Suggested Citation

  • William V Gehrlein & Vincent Merlin, 2021. "On the Probability of the Ostrogorski Paradox," Post-Print halshs-03504780, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-03504780
    DOI: 10.1007/978-3-030-48598-6_6
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://shs.hal.science/halshs-03504780
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Fabrice Valognes & Vincent Merlin & Monica Tataru, 2002. "On the likelihood of Condorcet's profiles," Social Choice and Welfare, Springer;The Society for Social Choice and Welfare, vol. 19(1), pages 193-206.
    2. Steven J. Brams & William S. Zwicker & D. Marc Kilgour, 1998. "The paradox of multiple elections," Social Choice and Welfare, Springer;The Society for Social Choice and Welfare, vol. 15(2), pages 211-236.
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