IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hal/journl/hal-05541737.html

Short-Run Monetary Policy Transmission, Credit Risk, and Bank Portfolio Adjustments: Evidence from the Non-Financial Corporate Sector in an Emerging Economy
[Transmission de la politique monétaire à court terme, risque de crédit et ajustements de portefeuille bancaire : données issues du secteur des entreprises non financières dans une économie émergente]

Author

Listed:
  • Adil Boutfssi

    (UH2C - Université Hassan II de Casablanca = University of Hassan II Casablanca = جامعة الحسن الثاني (ar))

  • Tarik Quamar

    (UH2C - Université Hassan II de Casablanca = University of Hassan II Casablanca = جامعة الحسن الثاني (ar))

Abstract

This paper examines the short-run transmission of monetary policy to bank credit granted to the non-financial corporate sector in Morocco, a bank-based emerging economy. Using monthly macro-financial data over the period of 2014–2024, the study estimates a reduced-form VAR model to analyze the dynamic interactions between the policy rate, bank credit, banks' holdings of sovereign securities, credit risk indicators, and short-term market spreads. Impulse response functions and forecast error variance decompositions indicate that a one-standard-deviation monetary policy shock is associated with a small and short-lived response of non-financial corporations bank credit at a monthly horizon, accounting for only a limited share of its forecast error variance, while the same shock is more strongly reflected in market spreads and banks' balance-sheet reallocations toward sovereign assets, alongside temporary movements in credit risk indicators. Overall, these results are consistent with a reduced-form transmission pattern in which monetary policy appears to affect bank credit primarily through indirect financial channels related to risk perception, portfolio reallocation, and balance-sheet management, rather than through immediate changes in aggregate credit volumes. This interpretation is conditional on the VAR specification and short-run horizon considered, and suggests an attenuation of the interest rate–credit channel in a bank-dominated emerging economy, rather than evidence of a structural breakdown of monetary transmission.

Suggested Citation

  • Adil Boutfssi & Tarik Quamar, 2026. "Short-Run Monetary Policy Transmission, Credit Risk, and Bank Portfolio Adjustments: Evidence from the Non-Financial Corporate Sector in an Emerging Economy [Transmission de la politique monétaire à court terme, risque de crédit et ajustements de ," Post-Print hal-05541737, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05541737
    DOI: 10.3390/jrfm19030178
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-05541737v1
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://hal.science/hal-05541737v1/document
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.3390/jrfm19030178?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ben S. Bernanke & Mark Gertler, 1995. "Inside the Black Box: The Credit Channel of Monetary Policy Transmission," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 9(4), pages 27-48, Fall.
    2. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
    3. Granger, C. W. J. & Newbold, P., 1974. "Spurious regressions in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 111-120, July.
    4. Henri Fraisse & Jean-Stéphane Mésonnier, 2023. "Accès au crédit des PME depuis la grande crise financière : quels effets des nouvelles politiques monétaires et prudentielles ?," Revue d'économie financière, Association d'économie financière, vol. 0(2), pages 35-56.
    5. Milton Friedman & Anna J. Schwartz, 1963. "A Monetary History of the United States, 1867–1960," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number frie63-1, January.
    6. James Cloyne & Clodomiro Ferreira & Maren Froemel & Paolo Surico, 2023. "Monetary Policy, Corporate Finance, and Investment," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 21(6), pages 2586-2634.
    7. Lutz Kilian, 1998. "Small-Sample Confidence Intervals For Impulse Response Functions," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(2), pages 218-230, May.
    8. Mossadak, Anas, 2017. "The transmission of monetary policy in Morocco: From policy rate to commercial banks’ lending rates," MPRA Paper 104578, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2017.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. J. Mark MUNOZ & Al NAQVI, 2017. "Artificial Intelligence and Urbanization: The Rise of the Elysium City," Journal of Economics and Political Economy, KSP Journals, vol. 4(1), pages 1-13, March.
    2. Jean Louis EKOMANE, 2017. "Monetary policy transmission: Does the credit channel perform in Cameroon?," Turkish Economic Review, KSP Journals, vol. 4(4), pages 369-377, December.
    3. Jean Louis EKOMANE & Benjamin YAMB, 2016. "The Measurement of Credit Channel in the CEMAC Zone," Journal of Economics and Political Economy, KSP Journals, vol. 3(4), pages 744-766, December.
    4. Athanasenas, Athanasios L., 2010. "Credit, income, and causality: A contemporary co-integration analysis," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 201(1), pages 194-205, February.
    5. J. Mark MUNOZ & Al NAQVI, 2017. "Artificial Intelligence and Urbanization: The Rise of the Elysium City," Journal of Economics and Political Economy, EconSciences Journals, vol. 4(1), pages 1-13, March.
    6. John D. Levendis, 2018. "Time Series Econometrics," Springer Texts in Business and Economics, Springer, number 978-3-319-98282-3, January.
    7. Jean Louis EKOMANE & Benjamin YAMB, 2016. "The Measurement of Credit Channel in the CEMAC Zone," Journal of Economics and Political Economy, EconSciences Journals, vol. 3(4), pages 744-766, December.
    8. Boris Hofmann, 2004. "The Determinants of Bank Credit in Industrialized Countries: Do Property Prices Matter?," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 7(2), pages 203-234, July.
    9. Stijn Claessens & M Ayhan Kose, 2018. "Frontiers of macrofinancial linkages," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 95.
    10. Serhan Cevik & Katerina Teksoz, 2013. "Lost in Transmission? The Effectiveness of Monetary Policy Transmission Channels in the GCC Countries," Middle East Development Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(3), pages 1350018-131, January.
    11. Geweke, John F. & Horowitz, Joel L. & Pesaran, M. Hashem, 2006. "Econometrics: A Bird's Eye View," IZA Discussion Papers 2458, IZA Network @ LISER.
    12. Mehmet BÖLÜKBAÞ, 2016. "The Effects of Economic Policies in Turkey: An Application for the Period After 2000," Journal of Social and Administrative Sciences, KSP Journals, vol. 3(4), pages 315-322, December.
    13. Lütkepohl, Helmut & Schlaak, Thore, 2019. "Bootstrapping impulse responses of structural vector autoregressive models identified through GARCH," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 41-61.
    14. Goto, Shingo, 2000. "The Fed's Effect on Excess Returns and Inflation is Much Bigger Than You Think," University of California at Los Angeles, Anderson Graduate School of Management qt04f1z5hb, Anderson Graduate School of Management, UCLA.
    15. Ryan-Collins, Josh & Werner, Richard A. & Castle, Jennifer, 2016. "A half-century diversion of monetary policy? An empirical horse-race to identify the UK variable most likely to deliver the desired nominal GDP growth rate," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 158-176.
    16. Kashif Munir, 2020. "Effectiveness of Monetary Policy on Money and Credit in Pakistan," Contemporary Economics, University of Economics and Human Sciences in Warsaw., vol. 14(2), June.
    17. Catherine Bruno, 1997. "Transmission de la politique monétaire et régime de changes : une comparaison France - Allemagne - Etats-Unis," Revue de l'OFCE, Programme National Persée, vol. 61(1), pages 139-164.
    18. Valentina Aprigliano & Danilo Liberati, 2021. "Using Credit Variables to Date Business Cycle and to Estimate the Probabilities of Recession in Real Time," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 89(S1), pages 76-96, September.
    19. KAMKOUM, Arnaud Cedric, 2023. "The Federal Reserve’s Response to the Global Financial Crisis and its Effects: An Interrupted Time-Series Analysis of the Impact of its Quantitative Easing Programs," Thesis Commons d7pvg, Center for Open Science.
    20. Löschel Andreas & Oberndorfer Ulrich, 2009. "Oil and Unemployment in Germany," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 229(2-3), pages 146-162, April.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05541737. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: CCSD (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.