Évaluation de l'équilibre électrique du scénario négawatt 2022 à l'aide du modèle open source eoles

We present the latest version of the open-source energy system optimisation model Eoles and use it to study whether the energy mix of the négaWatt 2022 scenario manages to meet demand for 2050 in France, for 19 weather-years. We find that even without recourse to interconnections, electricity demand only exceeds production for 3 to 4 hours a year on average, which is only just above the fault criteria of the French Energy Code. To prevent all hours of failure and fulfill reserves requirements, an additional 13.8~GW of dispatchable technologies is required, which corresponds to a 39\% increase compared to the négaWatt scenario. We then study the addition of three disptachable technologies: methane turbines, hydrogen turbines and batteries, that are all close in terms of total system cost. Moreover, electricity balance can be achieved even if the rooftop photovoltaic capacity is reduced compared to the négaWatt scenario. The associated gain (€3.4~bn./year) is higher than the additional cost of the dispatchable capacity mentioned above (around €1~bn./year).