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Instability of the Inflation–Output Trade‐Off and Time‐Varying Price Rigidity

Author

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  • Antonia López-Villavicencio

    (GATE Lyon Saint-Étienne - Groupe d'Analyse et de Théorie Economique Lyon - Saint-Etienne - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - UJM - Université Jean Monnet - Saint-Étienne - UJM EPE - Université Jean Monnet (EPSCPE) - EM - EMLyon Business School - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Valérie Mignon

    (CEPII - Centre d'études prospectives et d'informations internationales, EconomiX - EconomiX - UPN - Université Paris Nanterre - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

This paper studies the time instability of the Phillips curve by paying particular attention to the inflation environment and price stickiness. We identify various inflation episodes and investigate the changing nature of the curve across these periods for five advanced countries over 1960–2013. We show that the mean inflation, the slope of the curve and the threshold mean inflation that erodes price rigidity are time varying. The inflation environment is a key determinant of the inflation–output relationship, rejecting the evidence of a flat curve and restoring the inflation–output trade‐off above certain inflation thresholds.

Suggested Citation

  • Antonia López-Villavicencio & Valérie Mignon, 2015. "Instability of the Inflation–Output Trade‐Off and Time‐Varying Price Rigidity," Post-Print hal-05455819, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05455819
    DOI: 10.1111/obes.12102
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-05455819v1
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Terasvirta, T & Anderson, H M, 1992. "Characterizing Nonlinearities in Business Cycles Using Smooth Transition Autoregressive Models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(S), pages 119-136, Suppl. De.
    2. Dolado, Juan J. & Maria-Dolores, Ramon & Naveira, Manuel, 2005. "Are monetary-policy reaction functions asymmetric?: The role of nonlinearity in the Phillips curve," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 485-503, February.
    3. Russell, Bill, 2011. "Non-stationary inflation and panel estimates of United States short and long-run Phillips curves," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 406-419, September.
    4. Carlos Santos & David Hendry & Soren Johansen, 2008. "Automatic selection of indicators in a fully saturated regression," Computational Statistics, Springer, vol. 23(2), pages 317-335, April.
    5. Søren Johansen & Bent Nielsen, 2008. "An analysis of the indicator saturation estimator as a robust regression," Discussion Papers 08-03, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
    6. Andrew Atkeson & Lee E. Ohanian, 2001. "Are Phillips curves useful for forecasting inflation?," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, vol. 25(Win), pages 2-11.
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    2. Aguiar-Conraria, Luís & Martins, Manuel M.F. & Soares, Maria Joana, 2023. "The Phillips curve at 65: Time for time and frequency," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    3. Byrne, David & Zekaite, Zivile, 2018. "Missing wage growth in the euro area: is the wage Philips curve non-linear?," Economic Letters 9/EL/18, Central Bank of Ireland.
    4. Sharif, Bushra & Qayyum, Abdul, 2018. "Estimating the Inflation-Output Gap Trade-Off with Triangle Model in Pakistan," MPRA Paper 91166, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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