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On risk, ambiguity, and uncertainty—with a special emphasis on innovation

Author

Listed:
  • Ismail Benslimane

    (USMBA - Université Sidi Mohamed Ben Abdellah [Fès, Maroc])

  • Nabil Sifouh

    (Université Mohammed Premier [Oujda] = Université Mohammed Ier = University of Mohammed First)

  • Sanae Benjelloun

    (USMBA - Université Sidi Mohamed Ben Abdellah [Fès, Maroc])

  • Karim Ameziane

    (UCD - Université Chouaib Doukkali)

  • Yassire Elotmani

    (UM5 - Université Mohammed V de Rabat [Agdal])

Abstract

The objective of this article is to highlight three key concepts in the field of innovation: risk, ambiguity, and uncertainty. To this end, we reviewed the literature to identify the (probability/outcome) pair that helps distinguish these three notions and prevent any confusion. Particular attention is given to the eight types of uncertainty related to innovation, as well as to the various mechanisms available to reduce them. This research also aims to identify the primary source of ambiguity in innovative industries – namely, complexity – while addressing the risks inherent in technological innovation, whether internal or external. Finally, the article proposes an 'uncertainty tree' that synthesizes these various dimensions and situates the three aspects of uncertainty within a process-oriented framework, in order to determine the respective phases in which they emerge.

Suggested Citation

  • Ismail Benslimane & Nabil Sifouh & Sanae Benjelloun & Karim Ameziane & Yassire Elotmani, 2025. "On risk, ambiguity, and uncertainty—with a special emphasis on innovation," Post-Print hal-05312346, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05312346
    DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.17338961
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-05312346v1
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Camerer, Colin & Weber, Martin, 1992. "Recent Developments in Modeling Preferences: Uncertainty and Ambiguity," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 5(4), pages 325-370, October.
    2. Fagerberg, Jan, 1994. "Technology and International Differences in Growth Rates," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 32(3), pages 1147-1175, September.
    3. Ismail Benslimane & Sanae Benjelloun, 2025. "Re-writing management control philosophy," Post-Print hal-04912311, HAL.
    4. Daniel Ellsberg, 1961. "Risk, Ambiguity, and the Savage Axioms," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 75(4), pages 643-669.
    5. Terje Aven & Ortwin Renn, 2009. "On risk defined as an event where the outcome is uncertain," Journal of Risk Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(1), pages 1-11, January.
    6. Chris Freeman & Luc Soete, 1997. "The Economics of Industrial Innovation, 3rd Edition," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 3, volume 1, number 0262061953, December.
    7. Clare Chua Chow & Rakesh Sarin, 2002. "Known, Unknown, and Unknowable Uncertainties," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 52(2), pages 127-138, March.
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