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Strategic Flip‐Flopping in Political Competition

Author

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  • Gaëtan Fournier

    (AMSE - Aix-Marseille Sciences Economiques - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - ECM - École Centrale de Marseille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Alberto Grillo

    (AMU - Aix Marseille Université, AMSE - Aix-Marseille Sciences Economiques - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - ECM - École Centrale de Marseille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Yevgeny Tsodikovich

    (Bar-Ilan University [Israël], AMSE - Aix-Marseille Sciences Economiques - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - ECM - École Centrale de Marseille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

We study candidates' position adjustments in response to information about voters' preferences. Repositioning allows candidates to move closer to the median voter, but it incurs financial and electoral costs. In a subgame-perfect equilibrium, candidates diverge from the center ex ante if the costs of adjustment are sufficiently large. This allows them to increase the chances of a costless victory when the information is strongly in their favor. Our theory highlights a dynamic of moderation during the campaign stage in competitive elections, as well as a prominent role for minor adjustments made preemptively by the favored candidate. JEL Classification: C72, D72, D82 Model. We enrich the Downs-Hotelling framework by introducing an information shock, creating a two-stage game. The shock reveals the location of the median voter. This captures the idea that voters' aggregate preferences fluctuate over time and that their current leanings are disclosed during the electoral cam-This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs License, which permits use and distribution in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited, the use is non-commercial and no modifications or adaptations are made.

Suggested Citation

  • Gaëtan Fournier & Alberto Grillo & Yevgeny Tsodikovich, 2025. "Strategic Flip‐Flopping in Political Competition," Post-Print hal-05105112, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05105112
    DOI: 10.1111/iere.12778
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-05105112v1
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • C72 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Game Theory and Bargaining Theory - - - Noncooperative Games
    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • D82 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Asymmetric and Private Information; Mechanism Design

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