IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hal/journl/hal-03861065.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Who shall succeed? An examination of manager overconfidence and CEO selection

Author

Listed:
  • Lin Li

    (Shenzhen Audencia Business School, Shenzhen University)

  • Wilson H S Tong

Abstract

By categorizing managerial confidence attributes into overconfidence, rationality and diffidence with the methodology used in the finance literature, we investigate how company boards strategically select chief executive officer (CEO) replacements from the senior management pool with different confidence attributes. In normal retirements, company boards tend to select succeeding managers with the same confidence attribute as retiring CEOs. If boards fire company CEOs, they tend to select rational successors irrespective of the confidence attributes of the ousted CEOs. Such board inclination of picking rational successors also occurs when corporate operation is at the recession stage or corporate strategy is changed surrounding succession. The evidence indicates that the managerial confidence attribute is an important consideration of the board in the CEO selection process and that the board deliberately selects the CEO with a certain attribute to move the firm in a planned direction.

Suggested Citation

  • Lin Li & Wilson H S Tong, 2022. "Who shall succeed? An examination of manager overconfidence and CEO selection," Post-Print hal-03861065, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03861065
    DOI: 10.1111/jbfa.12607
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://audencia.hal.science/hal-03861065
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://audencia.hal.science/hal-03861065/document
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/jbfa.12607?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Eisfeldt, Andrea L. & Kuhnen, Camelia M., 2013. "CEO turnover in a competitive assignment framework," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(2), pages 351-372.
    2. Anwer S. Ahmed & Scott Duellman, 2013. "Managerial Overconfidence and Accounting Conservatism," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 51(1), pages 1-30, March.
    3. Fama, Eugene F & Jensen, Michael C, 1983. "Agency Problems and Residual Claims," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 26(2), pages 327-349, June.
    4. Dirk Jenter & Katharina Lewellen, 2015. "CEO Preferences and Acquisitions," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 70(6), pages 2813-2852, December.
    5. Berger, Philip G & Ofek, Eli, 1996. "Bustup Takeovers of Value-Destroying Diversified Firms," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(4), pages 1175-1200, September.
    6. Ulrike Malmendier & Geoffrey Tate, 2005. "CEO Overconfidence and Corporate Investment," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(6), pages 2661-2700, December.
    7. Nicholas Bloom & John Van Reenen, 2007. "Measuring and Explaining Management Practices Across Firms and Countries," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 122(4), pages 1351-1408.
    8. Denis, David J. & Denis, Diane K. & Sarin, Atulya, 1997. "Ownership structure and top executive turnover," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(2), pages 193-221, August.
    9. Hall, Brian J. & Murphy, Kevin J., 2002. "Stock options for undiversified executives," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 3-42, February.
    10. Ferris, Stephen P. & Jayaraman, Narayanan & Sabherwal, Sanjiv, 2013. "CEO Overconfidence and International Merger and Acquisition Activity," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 48(1), pages 137-164, February.
    11. Warner, Jerold B. & Watts, Ross L. & Wruck, Karen H., 1988. "Stock prices and top management changes," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(1-2), pages 461-492, January.
    12. Dirk Jenter & Fadi Kanaan, 2015. "CEO Turnover and Relative Performance Evaluation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 70(5), pages 2155-2184, October.
    13. Renée B. Adams & Patricia Funk, 2012. "Beyond the Glass Ceiling: Does Gender Matter?," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 58(2), pages 219-235, February.
    14. Mark R. Huson & Robert Parrino & Laura T. Starks, 2001. "Internal Monitoring Mechanisms and CEO Turnover: A Long‐Term Perspective," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(6), pages 2265-2297, December.
    15. Anand M. Goel & Anjan V. Thakor, 2008. "Overconfidence, CEO Selection, and Corporate Governance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 63(6), pages 2737-2784, December.
    16. Joon Mahn Lee & Byoung‐Hyoun Hwang & Hailiang Chen, 2017. "Are founder CEOs more overconfident than professional CEOs? Evidence from S&P 1500 companies," Strategic Management Journal, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38(3), pages 751-769, March.
    17. Guoli Chen & Craig Crossland & Shuqing Luo, 2015. "Making the same mistake all over again: CEO overconfidence and corporate resistance to corrective feedback," Strategic Management Journal, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(10), pages 1513-1535, October.
    18. Yermack, David, 1996. "Higher market valuation of companies with a small board of directors," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 185-211, February.
    19. Sabrina Artinger & Thomas C. Powell, 2016. "Entrepreneurial failure: Statistical and psychological explanations," Strategic Management Journal, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(6), pages 1047-1064, June.
    20. Franks, Julian & Mayer, Colin & Renneboog, Luc, 2001. "Who Disciplines Management in Poorly Performing Companies?," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 10(3-4), pages 209-248, July.
    21. Fee, C. Edward & Hadlock, Charles J., 2004. "Management turnover across the corporate hierarchy," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 3-38, February.
    22. John, Kose & Ofek, Eli, 1995. "Asset sales and increase in focus," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 105-126, January.
    23. Simon Gervais & J. B. Heaton & Terrance Odean, 2011. "Overconfidence, Compensation Contracts, and Capital Budgeting," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 66(5), pages 1735-1777, October.
    24. Adams, Renée B. & Ferreira, Daniel, 2009. "Women in the boardroom and their impact on governance and performance," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(2), pages 291-309, November.
    25. Graham, John R. & Harvey, Campbell R. & Puri, Manju, 2013. "Managerial attitudes and corporate actions," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(1), pages 103-121.
    26. Schrand, Catherine M. & Zechman, Sarah L.C., 2012. "Executive overconfidence and the slippery slope to financial misreporting," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 311-329.
    27. Alberto Galasso & Timothy S. Simcoe, 2011. "CEO Overconfidence and Innovation," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 57(8), pages 1469-1484, August.
    28. Fama, Eugene F, 1980. "Agency Problems and the Theory of the Firm," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(2), pages 288-307, April.
    29. Marianne Bertrand & Sendhil Mullainathan, 2003. "Enjoying the Quiet Life? Corporate Governance and Managerial Preferences," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 111(5), pages 1043-1075, October.
    30. Francesca Cornelli & Zbigniew Kominek & Alexander Ljungqvist, 2013. "Monitoring Managers: Does It Matter?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 68(2), pages 431-481, April.
    31. Omesh Kini & William Kracaw & Shehzad Mian, 2004. "The Nature of Discipline by Corporate Takeovers," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 59(4), pages 1511-1552, August.
    32. Inder K. Khurana & Hoyoun Kyung, 2021. "Internal control material weakness and CEO recruitment," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 48(9-10), pages 1940-1987, October.
    33. David Hirshleifer & Angie Low & Siew Hong Teoh, 2012. "Are Overconfident CEOs Better Innovators?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 67(4), pages 1457-1498, August.
    34. Marianne Bertrand & Antoinette Schoar, 2003. "Managing with Style: The Effect of Managers on Firm Policies," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 118(4), pages 1169-1208.
    35. C. Edward Fee & Charles J. Hadlock & Joshua R. Pierce, 2013. "Managers with and without Style: Evidence Using Exogenous Variation," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 26(3), pages 567-601.
    36. Robert A. Lowe & Arvids A. Ziedonis, 2006. "Overoptimism and the Performance of Entrepreneurial Firms," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 52(2), pages 173-186, February.
    37. Assem Safieddine & Sheridan Titman, 1999. "Leverage and Corporate Performance: Evidence from Unsuccessful Takeovers," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(2), pages 547-580, April.
    38. Steven N. Kaplan & Mark M. Klebanov & Morten Sorensen, 2012. "Which CEO Characteristics and Abilities Matter?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 67(3), pages 973-1007, June.
    39. Eli Ofek & David Yermack, 2000. "Taking Stock: Equity‐Based Compensation and the Evolution of Managerial Ownership," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(3), pages 1367-1384, June.
    40. Paul Hribar & Holly Yang, 2016. "CEO Overconfidence and Management Forecasting," Contemporary Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 33(1), pages 204-227, March.
    41. Denis, David J & Denis, Diane K, 1995. "Performance Changes Following Top Management Dismissals," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(4), pages 1029-1057, September.
    42. John Core & Wayne Guay, 2002. "Estimating the Value of Employee Stock Option Portfolios and Their Sensitivities to Price and Volatility," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(3), pages 613-630, June.
    43. Murphy, Kevin J. & Zimmerman, Jerold L., 1993. "Financial performance surrounding CEO turnover," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(1-3), pages 273-315, April.
    44. Karel Hrazdil & Jiri Novak & Rafael Rogo & Christine Wiedman & Ray Zhang, 2020. "Measuring executive personality using machine‐learning algorithms: A new approach and audit fee‐based validation tests," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 47(3-4), pages 519-544, March.
    45. Cain, Matthew D. & McKeon, Stephen B., 2016. "CEO Personal Risk-Taking and Corporate Policies," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 51(1), pages 139-164, February.
    46. Campbell, T. Colin & Gallmeyer, Michael & Johnson, Shane A. & Rutherford, Jessica & Stanley, Brooke W., 2011. "CEO optimism and forced turnover," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(3), pages 695-712, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Sanjukta Brahma & Agyenim Boateng & Sardar Ahmad, 2023. "Board overconfidence and M&A performance: evidence from the UK," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 60(4), pages 1363-1391, May.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Lin Li & Wilson H. S. Tong, 2022. "Who shall succeed? An examination of manager overconfidence and CEO selection," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 49(9-10), pages 1736-1783, October.
    2. Johannes Brunzel, 2021. "Overconfidence and narcissism among the upper echelons: a systematic literature review," Management Review Quarterly, Springer, vol. 71(3), pages 585-623, July.
    3. Kaplan, Steven N. & Sørensen, Morten & Zakolyukina, Anastasia A., 2022. "What is CEO overconfidence? Evidence from executive assessments," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(2), pages 409-425.
    4. Adam, Tim R. & Burg, Valentin & Scheinert, Tobias & Streitz, Daniel, 2014. "Managerial Optimism and Debt Contract Design: The Case of Syndicated Loans," Discussion Paper Series of SFB/TR 15 Governance and the Efficiency of Economic Systems 475, Free University of Berlin, Humboldt University of Berlin, University of Bonn, University of Mannheim, University of Munich.
    5. Tim R. Adam & Valentin Burg & Tobias Scheinert & Daniel Streitz, 2020. "Managerial Biases and Debt Contract Design: The Case of Syndicated Loans," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 66(1), pages 352-375, January.
    6. Randy Beavers & Shawn Mobbs, 2020. "Director overconfidence," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 49(2), pages 389-422, June.
    7. Bharati, Rakesh & Doellman, Thomas & Fu, Xudong, 2016. "CEO confidence and stock returns," Journal of Contemporary Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 89-110.
    8. Marius Guenzel & Ulrike Malmendier, 2020. "Behavioral Corporate Finance: The Life Cycle of a CEO Career," NBER Working Papers 27635, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Malmendier, Ulrike M. & Guenzel, Marius, 2020. "Behavioral Corporate Finance: The Life Cycle of a CEO Career," CEPR Discussion Papers 15103, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    10. Jenter, Dirk & Cziraki, Peter, 2021. "The Market for CEOs," CEPR Discussion Papers 16281, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    11. Hwang, Hyoseok (David) & Kim, Hyun-Dong & Kim, Taeyeon, 2020. "The blind power: Power-led CEO overconfidence and M&A decision making," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    12. Chen, Po-Jung & Hsu, Ching-Yu, 2022. "CEO optimism, CEO selection, compensation, and corporate investment decision: The case of CEOs who were rehired as CEOs by another firms after turnover," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    13. Jie Chen & Woon Sau Leung & Wei Song & Marc Goergen, 2018. "Why female board representation matters: The role of female directors in reducing male CEO overconfidence in corporate decisions," Working Papers 2018-12, Swansea University, School of Management.
    14. Li, Si & Perez, M. Fabricio, 2021. "The evolution of pay premiums for managerial attributes," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    15. Çolak, Gönül & Korkeamäki, Timo, 2021. "CEO mobility and corporate policy risk," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    16. Juwon Jang & Eunju Lee, 2024. "CEO confidence matters: the real effects of short sale constraints revisited," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 62(2), pages 603-636, February.
    17. Gurdgiev, Constantin & Ni, Qiuxin, 2023. "Board diversity: Moderating effects of CEO overconfidence on firm financing decisions," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C).
    18. Li, Xiaoyang & Low, Angie & Makhija, Anil K., 2017. "Career concerns and the busy life of the young CEO," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 88-109.
    19. Banerjee, Suman & Dai, Lili & Humphery-Jenner, Mark & Nanda, Vikram, 2020. "Governance, board inattention, and the appointment of overconfident CEOs," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    20. Tobias Heizer & Laura R. Rettig, 2020. "Top management team optimism and its influence on firms' financing and investment decisions," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 38(4), pages 601-622, October.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    CEO selection; corporate strategy; operation status; overconfidence; Overconfidence CEO selection Corporate strategy Operation status G3 G34 G39; Overconfidence; Corporate strategy; Operation status G3; G34; G39;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G3 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance
    • G34 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Mergers; Acquisitions; Restructuring; Corporate Governance
    • G39 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Other
    • G3 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance
    • G34 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Mergers; Acquisitions; Restructuring; Corporate Governance
    • G39 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Other

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03861065. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: CCSD (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.