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Comment améliorer la prévision des ventes pour le marketing ? Les apports de la théorie du chaos

Author

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  • Adrien Bernard Bonache

    (CREGO - Centre de Recherche en Gestion des Organisations (EA 7317) - UB - Université de Bourgogne - UFC - Université de Franche-Comté - UBFC - Université Bourgogne Franche-Comté [COMUE])

  • Marc Filser

Abstract

La littérature en marketing constate un décalage entre les avancées réalisées par les chercheurs qui développent de nouvelles méthodes de prévision des ventes, et l'usage massif de méthodes traditionnelles reposant sur l'hypothèse de linéarité des processus analysés. Cette recherche expose la contribution potentielle de la théorie du chaos à l'amélioration de la prévision des ventes. Une illustration de ces apports est proposée avec une application à la prévision des ventes de consoles de jeux vidéo au Japon. Les résultats mettent en évidence la capacité de la méthode proposée à détecter la présence de chaos dans la série et montrent la possibilité de préciser l'horizon de prévisibilité des ventes.

Suggested Citation

  • Adrien Bernard Bonache & Marc Filser, 2013. "Comment améliorer la prévision des ventes pour le marketing ? Les apports de la théorie du chaos," Post-Print hal-03822792, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03822792
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-03822792
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    References listed on IDEAS

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