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The Effect of Sovereign Wealth Funds on the Credit Risk of their Portfolio Companies

Author

Listed:
  • Fabio Bertoni

    (EM - EMLyon Business School)

  • Stefano Lugo

    (Universiteit Utrecht / Utrecht University [Utrecht])

Abstract

We study how sovereign wealth fund (SWF) investments affect the credit risk of target companies as measured by the change in their credit default swap (CDS) spreads around the investment announcement. Our analysis is based on a sample of 391 SWF investments in 198 companies between 2003 and 2010. Our results indicate that the CDS spread of target companies decreases, on average, following an SWF investment. The reduction in the CDS spread is higher when the SWF is established by a politically stable non-democratic country that has a neutral political relationship with the host country of the target company. The results are robust to different definitions of the dependent variable in terms of event window, CDS maturity and calculation of the benchmark CDS spread. Our results suggest that creditors expect SWFs to protect target companies from bankruptcy when it is in the interest of their home country to build political goodwill in the host country of the company.

Suggested Citation

  • Fabio Bertoni & Stefano Lugo, 2014. "The Effect of Sovereign Wealth Funds on the Credit Risk of their Portfolio Companies," Post-Print hal-02313153, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-02313153
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jcorpfin.2014.04.004
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    2. Dariusz Urban, 2016. "The Investment Attractiveness of Companies Listed on the Warsaw Stock Exchange to Sovereign Wealth Funds," Acta Oeconomica, Akadémiai Kiadó, Hungary, vol. 66(2), pages 333-350, June.
    3. Douglas Cumming & Pedro Monteiro, 2023. "Sovereign wealth fund investment in venture capital, private equity, and real asset funds," Journal of International Business Policy, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 6(3), pages 330-355, September.
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    5. Arouri, Mohamed & Boubaker, Sabri & Grais, Wafik & Grira, Jocelyn, 2018. "Rationality or politics? The color of black gold money," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 62-76.
    6. Fabio Bertoni & Stefano Lugo, 2013. "Testing the Strategic Asset Allocation of Stabilization Sovereign Wealth Funds," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(1), pages 95-119, February.
    7. Ghouma, Hatem H. & Ouni, Zeineb, 2022. "The sovereign wealth funds risk premium: Evidence from the cost of debt financing," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    8. Bahoo, Salman & Alon, Ilan & Paltrinieri, Andrea, 2020. "Sovereign wealth funds: Past, present and future," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    9. Andres, Christian & Betzer, André & Doumet, Markus, 2021. "Measuring changes in credit risk: The case of CDS event studies," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 49(C).
    10. Boubaker, Sabri & Boubakri, Narjess & Grira, Jocelyn & Guizani, Asma, 2018. "Sovereign wealth funds and equity pricing: Evidence from implied cost of equity of publicly traded targets," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 202-224.
    11. Park, Raphael Jonghyeon & Xu, Simon & In, Francis & Ji, Philip Inyeob, 2019. "The long-term impact of sovereign wealth fund investments," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 115-138.
    12. Douglas A. Schuler & Wei Shi & Robert E. Hoskisson & Tao Chen, 2017. "Windfalls of emperors' sojourns: Stock market reactions to Chinese firms hosting high-ranking government officials," Strategic Management Journal, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38(8), pages 1668-1687, August.
    13. Boubakri, Narjess & Cosset, Jean-Claude & Grira, Jocelyn, 2016. "Sovereign wealth funds targets selection: A comparison with pension funds," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 60-76.
    14. Gangi, Francesco & Meles, Antonio & Mustilli, Mario & Graziano, Domenico & Varrone, Nicola, 2019. "Do investment determinants and effects vary across sovereign wealth fund categories? A firm-level analysis," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 438-457.
    15. Alhashel, Bader, 2015. "Sovereign Wealth Funds: A literature review," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 1-13.
    16. Alhashel, Bader S. & Albader, Sulaiman H., 2020. "How do sovereign wealth funds pay their portfolio companies’ executives? Evidence from Kuwait," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 303-322.
    17. Dreassi, Alberto & Miani, Stefano & Paltrinieri, Andrea, 2017. "Sovereign pension and social security reserve funds: A portfolio analysis," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 43-53.
    18. Bertoni, Fabio & Lugo, Stefano, 2018. "Detecting abnormal changes in credit default swap spreads using matching-portfolio models," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 146-158.
    19. Boubakri, Narjess & Cosset, Jean-Claude & Grira, Jocelyn, 2017. "Sovereign wealth funds investment effects on target firms' competitors," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 96-112.
    20. K.S.Reddy, 2019. "Pot the ball? Sovereign wealth funds’ outward FDI in times of global financial market turbulence: A yield institutions-based view," Central Bank Review, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, vol. 19(4), pages 129-139.
    21. Murtinu, Samuele & Scalera, Vittoria G., 2016. "Sovereign Wealth Funds' Internationalization Strategies: The Use of Investment Vehicles," Journal of International Management, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 249-264.
    22. Hoda Youssef & Ibrahim Elbadawi & Raimundo Soto, 2018. "Sovereign Wealth Funds and Macroeconomic Stabilization in the Home Economy," Working Papers 1175, Economic Research Forum, revised 29 Mar 2008.
    23. Hasse, Jean-Baptiste & Lecourt, Christelle & Siagh, Souhila, 2024. "Setting up a sovereign wealth fund to reduce currency crises," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill
    • G33 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Bankruptcy; Liquidation
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation

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