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Decision-making under uncertainty in drug development

Author

Listed:
  • Saïna Hassanzadeh

    (CGI - Centre Génie Industriel - IMT Mines Albi - IMT École nationale supérieure des Mines d'Albi-Carmaux - IMT - Institut Mines-Télécom [Paris], Fondation pour une Culture de Sécurité Industrielle - Institut pour une Culture de Sécurité Industrielle)

  • Didier Gourc

    (CGI - Centre Génie Industriel - IMT Mines Albi - IMT École nationale supérieure des Mines d'Albi-Carmaux - IMT - Institut Mines-Télécom [Paris])

  • François Marmier

    (CGI - Centre Génie Industriel - IMT Mines Albi - IMT École nationale supérieure des Mines d'Albi-Carmaux - IMT - Institut Mines-Télécom [Paris])

  • Sophie Bougaret

    (MANAGEOS - MANAGEOS)

Abstract

In pharmaceutical industry, decision-makers have to decide whether to continue drug development projects which are very expensive, risky and long. Such decisions are made collectively, under a high degree of uncertainty and in non-emergency situations. The major problem in this context is indecision. In order to improve the decision-making process in practice, we need to characterize and analyze situations of decision-making under uncertainty. In this paper, we propose a new definition of uncertainty that takes human factors in its characterization into account. Then, we present a typology of uncertainty generators that helps us recognize and explore its causal factors. Additionally, we represent decision-making process in pharmaceutical R\&D illustrating the role of different actors and their interactions in decision-making. This should help decision-makers adopt proactive practices instead of reactive ones.

Suggested Citation

  • Saïna Hassanzadeh & Didier Gourc & François Marmier & Sophie Bougaret, 2010. "Decision-making under uncertainty in drug development," Post-Print hal-00745303, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-00745303
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-00745303
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Tsoukias, Alexis, 2008. "From decision theory to decision aiding methodology," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 187(1), pages 138-161, May.
    2. Lipshitz, Raanan & Strauss, Orna, 1997. "Coping with Uncertainty: A Naturalistic Decision-Making Analysis," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 69(2), pages 149-163, February.
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    Cited by:

    1. Saïna Hassanzadeh & Didier Gourc & François Marmier & Sophie Bougaret, 2011. "Decision-making in R&D projects, a framework based on fuzzy logic," Post-Print hal-00745290, HAL.
    2. Saïna Hassanzadeh & François Marmier & Didier Gourc & Sophie Bougaret, 2011. "Integration of human factors in project uncertainty management, a decision support system based on fuzzy logic," Post-Print hal-00745283, HAL.

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