IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hal/cesptp/halshs-01960900.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

New method to detect convergence in simple multi-period market games with infinite large strategy spaces

Author

Listed:
  • Jørgen Vitting Andersen

    (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Philippe de Peretti

    (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

We introduce a new methodology that enables the detection of onset of convergence towards Nash equilibria, in simple repeated-games with infinite large strategy spaces. The method works by constraining on a special and finite subset of strategies. We illustrate how the method can predict (in special time periods) with a high success rate the action of participants in a series of experiments.

Suggested Citation

  • Jørgen Vitting Andersen & Philippe de Peretti, 2018. "New method to detect convergence in simple multi-period market games with infinite large strategy spaces," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-01960900, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:cesptp:halshs-01960900
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://shs.hal.science/halshs-01960900
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://shs.hal.science/halshs-01960900/document
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Holthausen, Robert W. & Leftwich, Richard W. & Mayers, David, 1987. "The effect of large block transactions on security prices: A cross-sectional analysis," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 237-267, December.
    2. Linde, Jona & Sonnemans, Joep & Tuinstra, Jan, 2014. "Strategies and evolution in the minority game: A multi-round strategy experiment," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 77-95.
    3. Daniele Nosenzo & Simone Quercia & Martin Sefton, 2015. "Cooperation in small groups: the effect of group size," Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 18(1), pages 4-14, March.
    4. Arthur, W Brian, 1994. "Inductive Reasoning and Bounded Rationality," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(2), pages 406-411, May.
    5. Müller, Wieland & Tan, Fangfang, 2013. "Who acts more like a game theorist? Group and individual play in a sequential market game and the effect of the time horizon," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 658-674.
    6. Thomas Stöckl & Jürgen Huber & Michael Kirchler, 2015. "Multi-period experimental asset markets with distinct fundamental value regimes," Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 18(2), pages 314-334, June.
    7. Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 383-417, May.
    8. Ioannou, Christos A. & Romero, Julian, 2014. "A generalized approach to belief learning in repeated games," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 178-203.
    9. V. P. Crawford, 2014. "Boundedly rational versus optimization-based models of strategic thinking and learning in games," Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP Voprosy Ekonomiki, issue 5.
    10. Anauati, María Victoria & Feld, Brian & Galiani, Sebastian & Torrens, Gustavo, 2016. "Collective action: Experimental evidence," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 36-55.
    11. David Lamper & Sam Howison & Neil Johnson, 2001. "Predictability of large future changes in a competitive evolving population," OFRC Working Papers Series 2001mf01, Oxford Financial Research Centre.
    12. John Ifcher & Homa Zarghamee, 2016. "Pricing competition: a new laboratory measure of gender differences in the willingness to compete," Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 19(3), pages 642-662, September.
    13. W. Brian Arthur, 1994. "Inductive Reasoning, Bounded Rationality and the Bar Problem," Working Papers 94-03-014, Santa Fe Institute.
    14. Challet, D. & Zhang, Y.-C., 1997. "Emergence of cooperation and organization in an evolutionary game," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 246(3), pages 407-418.
    15. Chong, Juin-Kuan & Ho, Teck-Hua & Camerer, Colin, 2016. "A generalized cognitive hierarchy model of games," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 257-274.
    16. Johnson, Neil F & Hart, Michael & Hui, P.M, 1999. "Crowd effects and volatility in markets with competing agents," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 269(1), pages 1-8.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jørgen Vitting Andersen & Philippe de Peretti, 2020. "Heuristics in experiments with infinitely large strategy spaces," Post-Print hal-02435934, HAL.
    2. Jørgen Vitting Andersen & Philippe de Peretti, 2018. "New method to detect convergence in simple multi-period market games with infinite large strategy spaces," Post-Print halshs-01960900, HAL.
    3. Jørgen Vitting Andersen & Philippe de Peretti, 2018. "New method to detect convergence in simple multi-period market games with infinite large strategy spaces," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 18038, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne.
    4. Jørgen Vitting Andersen & Philippe de Peretti, 2020. "Heuristics in experiments with infinitely large strategy spaces," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) hal-02435934, HAL.
    5. J{o}rgen Vitting Andersen & Philippe de Peretti, 2020. "Heuristics in experiments with infinitely large strategy spaces," Papers 2005.02337, arXiv.org.
    6. Andersen, Jørgen Vitting & de Peretti, Philippe, 2021. "Heuristics in experiments with infinitely large strategy spaces," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 129(C), pages 612-620.
    7. Yamada, Takashi & Hanaki, Nobuyuki, 2016. "An experiment on Lowest Unique Integer Games," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 463(C), pages 88-102.
    8. Wawrzyniak, Karol & Wiślicki, Wojciech, 2012. "Mesoscopic approach to minority games in herd regime," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 391(5), pages 2056-2082.
    9. Mello, Bernardo A. & Cajueiro, Daniel O., 2008. "Minority games, diversity, cooperativity and the concept of intelligence," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 387(2), pages 557-566.
    10. Kristoufek, Ladislav & Vošvrda, Miloslav S., 2016. "Herding, minority game, market clearing and efficient markets in a simple spin model framework," FinMaP-Working Papers 68, Collaborative EU Project FinMaP - Financial Distortions and Macroeconomic Performance: Expectations, Constraints and Interaction of Agents.
    11. Cross, Rod & Grinfeld, Michael & Lamba, Harbir & Seaman, Tim, 2005. "A threshold model of investor psychology," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 354(C), pages 463-478.
    12. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Antoaneta Serguieva & Hao Wu, 2009. "Financial contagion: evolutionary optimization of a multinational agent‐based model," Intelligent Systems in Accounting, Finance and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(1‐2), pages 111-125, January.
    13. Yi-Fang Liu & Jørgen Vitting Andersen & Philippe de Peretti, 2016. "Onset of financial instability studied via agent-based models," Post-Print hal-01397400, HAL.
    14. Linde, Jona & Gietl, Daniel & Sonnemans, Joep & Tuinstra, Jan, 2023. "The effect of quantity and quality of information in strategy tournaments," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 211(C), pages 305-323.
    15. Jean-Philippe Bouchaud & Matteo Marsili & Jean-Pierre Nadal, 2023. "Application of spin glass ideas in social sciences, economics and finance," Papers 2306.16165, arXiv.org.
    16. Katahira, Kei & Chen, Yu & Hashimoto, Gaku & Okuda, Hiroshi, 2019. "Development of an agent-based speculation game for higher reproducibility of financial stylized facts," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 524(C), pages 503-518.
    17. Nadir Altinok & Abdurrahman Aydemir, 2015. "The Unfolding of Gender Gap in Education," Working Papers 934, Economic Research Forum, revised Aug 2015.
    18. Bell, Peter N, 2013. "New Testing Procedures to Assess Market Efficiency with Trading Rules," MPRA Paper 46701, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Giuseppe Pernagallo & Benedetto Torrisi, 2020. "A theory of information overload applied to perfectly efficient financial markets," Review of Behavioral Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 14(2), pages 223-236, October.
    20. Alan Kirman & François Laisney & Paul Pezanis-Christou, 2023. "Relaxing the symmetry assumption in participation games: a specification test for cluster-heterogeneity," Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 26(4), pages 850-878, September.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    multi-period games; infinite strategy space; decoupling; bounded rationality; agent-based modeling;
    All these keywords.

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hal:cesptp:halshs-01960900. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: CCSD (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.