Predictability of large future changes in a competitive evolving population
The dynamical evolution of many economic, sociological, biological and physical systems tends to be dominated by a relatively small number of unexpected, large changes (`extreme events'). We study the large, internal changes produced in a generic multi-agent population competing for a limited resource, and find that the level of predictability actually increases prior to a large change. These large changes hence arise as a predictable consequence of information encoded in the system's global state.
|Date of creation:||2001|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.finance.ox.ac.uk|
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