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Predictability of large future changes in a competitive evolving population


  • David Lamper
  • Sam Howison
  • Neil Johnson


The dynamical evolution of many economic, sociological, biological and physical systems tends to be dominated by a relatively small number of unexpected, large changes (`extreme events'). We study the large, internal changes produced in a generic multi-agent population competing for a limited resource, and find that the level of predictability actually increases prior to a large change. These large changes hence arise as a predictable consequence of information encoded in the system's global state.

Suggested Citation

  • David Lamper & Sam Howison & Neil Johnson, 2001. "Predictability of large future changes in a competitive evolving population," OFRC Working Papers Series 2001mf01, Oxford Financial Research Centre.
  • Handle: RePEc:sbs:wpsefe:2001mf01

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    Cited by:

    1. J. Wiesinger & D. Sornette & J. Satinover, 2013. "Reverse Engineering Financial Markets with Majority and Minority Games Using Genetic Algorithms," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 41(4), pages 475-492, April.
    2. Zapart, Christopher A., 2009. "On entropy, financial markets and minority games," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 388(7), pages 1157-1172.

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