IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hal/cesptp/halshs-01835164.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Credit Risk Analysis Using Machine and Deep Learning Models

Author

Listed:
  • Dominique Guegan

    (UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne, CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Labex ReFi - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne, IPAG Business School, University of Ca’ Foscari [Venice, Italy])

  • Peter Martey Addo

    (AFD - Agence française de développement, Labex ReFi - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne)

  • Bertrand Hassani

    (Labex ReFi - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne, CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Capgemini Consulting [Paris], UCL-CS - Department of Computer science [University College of London] - UCL - University College of London [London])

Abstract

Due to the advanced technology associated with Big Data, data availability and computing power, most banks or lending institutions are renewing their business models. Credit risk predictions, monitoring, model reliability and effective loan processing are key to decision-making and transparency. In this work, we build binary classifiers based on machine and deep learning models on real data in predicting loan default probability. The top 10 important features from these models are selected and then used in the modeling process to test the stability of binary classifiers by comparing their performance on separate data. We observe that the tree-based models are more stable than the models based on multilayer artificial neural networks. This opens several questions relative to the intensive use of deep learning systems in enterprises.

Suggested Citation

  • Dominique Guegan & Peter Martey Addo & Bertrand Hassani, 2018. "Credit Risk Analysis Using Machine and Deep Learning Models," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-01835164, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:cesptp:halshs-01835164
    DOI: 10.3390/risks6020038
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://shs.hal.science/halshs-01835164v1
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://shs.hal.science/halshs-01835164v1/document
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.3390/risks6020038?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Robert Tibshirani, 2011. "Regression shrinkage and selection via the lasso: a retrospective," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 73(3), pages 273-282, June.
    2. Justin Sirignano & Apaar Sadhwani & Kay Giesecke, 2016. "Deep Learning for Mortgage Risk," Papers 1607.02470, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2018.
    3. Lerman, Robert I. & Yitzhaki, Shlomo, 1984. "A note on the calculation and interpretation of the Gini index," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 15(3-4), pages 363-368.
    4. A. Seetharaman & Vikas Kumar Sahu & A. S. Saravanan & John Rudolph Raj & Indu Niranjan, 2017. "The Impact of Risk Management in Credit Rating Agencies," Risks, MDPI, vol. 5(4), pages 1-16, September.
    5. Butaru, Florentin & Chen, Qingqing & Clark, Brian & Das, Sanmay & Lo, Andrew W. & Siddique, Akhtar, 2016. "Risk and risk management in the credit card industry," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 218-239.
    6. Fan J. & Li R., 2001. "Variable Selection via Nonconcave Penalized Likelihood and its Oracle Properties," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 96, pages 1348-1360, December.
    7. Yitzhaki, Shlomo, 1983. "On an Extension of the Gini Inequality Index," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 24(3), pages 617-628, October.
    8. Zou, Hui, 2006. "The Adaptive Lasso and Its Oracle Properties," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 101, pages 1418-1429, December.
    9. Friedman, Jerome H. & Hastie, Trevor & Tibshirani, Rob, 2010. "Regularization Paths for Generalized Linear Models via Coordinate Descent," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 33(i01).
    10. Angelini, Eliana & di Tollo, Giacomo & Roli, Andrea, 2008. "A neural network approach for credit risk evaluation," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(4), pages 733-755, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Dominique Guegan & Peter Martey Addo & Bertrand Hassani, 2018. "Credit Risk Analysis Using Machine and Deep Learning Models," Post-Print halshs-01835164, HAL.
    2. Peter Martey Addo & Dominique Guegan & Bertrand Hassani, 2018. "Credit Risk Analysis Using Machine and Deep Learning Models," Risks, MDPI, vol. 6(2), pages 1-20, April.
    3. Jin, Shaobo & Moustaki, Irini & Yang-Wallentin, Fan, 2018. "Approximated penalized maximum likelihood for exploratory factor analysis: an orthogonal case," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 88118, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    4. Tanin Sirimongkolkasem & Reza Drikvandi, 2019. "On Regularisation Methods for Analysis of High Dimensional Data," Annals of Data Science, Springer, vol. 6(4), pages 737-763, December.
    5. van Erp, Sara & Oberski, Daniel L. & Mulder, Joris, 2018. "Shrinkage priors for Bayesian penalized regression," OSF Preprints cg8fq, Center for Open Science.
    6. repec:osf:osfxxx:cg8fq_v1 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Peter Martey Addo & Dominique Guegan & Bertrand Hassani, 2018. "Credit Risk Analysis using Machine and Deep Learning models," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-01719983, HAL.
    8. Peter Martey Addo & Dominique Guegan & Bertrand Hassani, 2018. "Credit Risk Analysis using Machine and Deep Learning models," Post-Print halshs-01719983, HAL.
    9. Camila Epprecht & Dominique Guegan & Álvaro Veiga & Joel Correa da Rosa, 2017. "Variable selection and forecasting via automated methods for linear models: LASSO/adaLASSO and Autometrics," Post-Print halshs-00917797, HAL.
    10. Shaobo Jin & Irini Moustaki & Fan Yang-Wallentin, 2018. "Approximated Penalized Maximum Likelihood for Exploratory Factor Analysis: An Orthogonal Case," Psychometrika, Springer;The Psychometric Society, vol. 83(3), pages 628-649, September.
    11. Alireza Daneshvar & Golalizadeh Mousa, 2023. "Regression shrinkage and selection via least quantile shrinkage and selection operator," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 18(2), pages 1-17, February.
    12. Craig, Sarah J.C. & Kenney, Ana M. & Lin, Junli & Paul, Ian M. & Birch, Leann L. & Savage, Jennifer S. & Marini, Michele E. & Chiaromonte, Francesca & Reimherr, Matthew L. & Makova, Kateryna D., 2023. "Constructing a polygenic risk score for childhood obesity using functional data analysis," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 66-86.
    13. Peter Martey Addo & Dominique Guégan & Bertrand Hassani, 2018. "Credit Risk Analysis using Machine and Deep learning models," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 18003, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne.
    14. Sierra A. Bainter & Thomas G. McCauley & Mahmoud M. Fahmy & Zachary T. Goodman & Lauren B. Kupis & J. Sunil Rao, 2023. "Comparing Bayesian Variable Selection to Lasso Approaches for Applications in Psychology," Psychometrika, Springer;The Psychometric Society, vol. 88(3), pages 1032-1055, September.
    15. Tutz, Gerhard & Pößnecker, Wolfgang & Uhlmann, Lorenz, 2015. "Variable selection in general multinomial logit models," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 207-222.
    16. Naimoli, Antonio, 2022. "Modelling the persistence of Covid-19 positivity rate in Italy," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 82(PA).
    17. Peter Bühlmann & Jacopo Mandozzi, 2014. "High-dimensional variable screening and bias in subsequent inference, with an empirical comparison," Computational Statistics, Springer, vol. 29(3), pages 407-430, June.
    18. Capanu, Marinela & Giurcanu, Mihai & Begg, Colin B. & Gönen, Mithat, 2023. "Subsampling based variable selection for generalized linear models," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 184(C).
    19. Loann David Denis Desboulets, 2018. "A Review on Variable Selection in Regression Analysis," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 6(4), pages 1-27, November.
    20. Zeyu Bian & Erica E. M. Moodie & Susan M. Shortreed & Sahir Bhatnagar, 2023. "Variable selection in regression‐based estimation of dynamic treatment regimes," Biometrics, The International Biometric Society, vol. 79(2), pages 988-999, June.
    21. Christidis, Anthony-Alexander & Van Aelst, Stefan & Zamar, Ruben, 2025. "Multi-model subset selection," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 203(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    financial regulation; deep learning; Big data; data science; credit risk;
    All these keywords.

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hal:cesptp:halshs-01835164. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: CCSD (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.