IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jrisks/v6y2018i2p38-d141267.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Credit Risk Analysis Using Machine and Deep Learning Models

Author

Listed:
  • Peter Martey Addo

    (Direction du Numérique, AFD—Agence Française de Développement, Paris 75012, France
    Laboratory of Excellence for Financial Regulation (LabEx ReFi), Paris 75011, France)

  • Dominique Guegan

    (Laboratory of Excellence for Financial Regulation (LabEx ReFi), Paris 75011, France
    IPAG Business School, University Paris 1 Pantheon Sorbonne, Ca’Foscari Unversity of Venezia, Venezia 30123, Italy
    Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne, CES, 106 bd de l’Hôpital, Paris 75013, France)

  • Bertrand Hassani

    (Laboratory of Excellence for Financial Regulation (LabEx ReFi), Paris 75011, France
    Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne, CES, 106 bd de l’Hôpital, Paris 75013, France
    Capgemini Consulting, Courbevoie 92400, France
    University College London Computer Science, 66-72 Gower Street, London WC1E 6EA, UK)

Abstract

Due to the advanced technology associated with Big Data, data availability and computing power, most banks or lending institutions are renewing their business models. Credit risk predictions, monitoring, model reliability and effective loan processing are key to decision-making and transparency. In this work, we build binary classifiers based on machine and deep learning models on real data in predicting loan default probability. The top 10 important features from these models are selected and then used in the modeling process to test the stability of binary classifiers by comparing their performance on separate data. We observe that the tree-based models are more stable than the models based on multilayer artificial neural networks. This opens several questions relative to the intensive use of deep learning systems in enterprises.

Suggested Citation

  • Peter Martey Addo & Dominique Guegan & Bertrand Hassani, 2018. "Credit Risk Analysis Using Machine and Deep Learning Models," Risks, MDPI, vol. 6(2), pages 1-20, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jrisks:v:6:y:2018:i:2:p:38-:d:141267
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2227-9091/6/2/38/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2227-9091/6/2/38/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Robert Tibshirani, 2011. "Regression shrinkage and selection via the lasso: a retrospective," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 73(3), pages 273-282, June.
    2. Justin Sirignano & Apaar Sadhwani & Kay Giesecke, 2016. "Deep Learning for Mortgage Risk," Papers 1607.02470, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2018.
    3. Gastwirth, Joseph L, 1972. "The Estimation of the Lorenz Curve and Gini Index," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 54(3), pages 306-316, August.
    4. Fan J. & Li R., 2001. "Variable Selection via Nonconcave Penalized Likelihood and its Oracle Properties," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 96, pages 1348-1360, December.
    5. ,, 1998. "Problems And Solutions," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 14(1), pages 151-159, February.
    6. Yitzhaki, Shlomo, 1983. "On an Extension of the Gini Inequality Index," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 24(3), pages 617-628, October.
    7. Lerman, Robert I. & Yitzhaki, Shlomo, 1984. "A note on the calculation and interpretation of the Gini index," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 15(3-4), pages 363-368.
    8. Zou, Hui, 2006. "The Adaptive Lasso and Its Oracle Properties," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 101, pages 1418-1429, December.
    9. Butaru, Florentin & Chen, Qingqing & Clark, Brian & Das, Sanmay & Lo, Andrew W. & Siddique, Akhtar, 2016. "Risk and risk management in the credit card industry," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 218-239.
    10. ,, 1998. "Problems And Solutions," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 14(5), pages 687-698, October.
    11. A. Seetharaman & Vikas Kumar Sahu & A. S. Saravanan & John Rudolph Raj & Indu Niranjan, 2017. "The Impact of Risk Management in Credit Rating Agencies," Risks, MDPI, vol. 5(4), pages 1-16, September.
    12. Friedman, Jerome H. & Hastie, Trevor & Tibshirani, Rob, 2010. "Regularization Paths for Generalized Linear Models via Coordinate Descent," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 33(i01).
    13. Khandani, Amir E. & Kim, Adlar J. & Lo, Andrew W., 2010. "Consumer credit-risk models via machine-learning algorithms," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(11), pages 2767-2787, November.
    14. ,, 1998. "Problems And Solutions," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 14(3), pages 381-386, June.
    15. ,, 1998. "Problems And Solutions," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 14(4), pages 525-537, August.
    16. Ron S. Kenett & Silvia Salini, 2011. "Modern analysis of customer satisfaction surveys: comparison of models and integrated analysis," Applied Stochastic Models in Business and Industry, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 27(5), pages 465-475, September.
    17. ,, 1998. "Problems And Solutions," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 14(2), pages 285-292, April.
    18. Angelini, Eliana & di Tollo, Giacomo & Roli, Andrea, 2008. "A neural network approach for credit risk evaluation," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(4), pages 733-755, November.
    19. Hui Zou & Trevor Hastie, 2005. "Addendum: Regularization and variable selection via the elastic net," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 67(5), pages 768-768, November.
    20. Hui Zou & Trevor Hastie, 2005. "Regularization and variable selection via the elastic net," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 67(2), pages 301-320, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Dominique Guegan & Peter Martey Addo & Bertrand Hassani, 2018. "Credit Risk Analysis Using Machine and Deep Learning Models," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-01835164, HAL.
    2. Dominique Guegan & Peter Martey Addo & Bertrand Hassani, 2018. "Credit Risk Analysis Using Machine and Deep Learning Models," Post-Print halshs-01835164, HAL.
    3. Peter Martey Addo & Dominique Guegan & Bertrand Hassani, 2018. "Credit Risk Analysis using Machine and Deep Learning models," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-01719983, HAL.
    4. Peter Martey Addo & Dominique Guegan & Bertrand Hassani, 2018. "Credit Risk Analysis using Machine and Deep Learning models," Post-Print halshs-01719983, HAL.
    5. Sarkar, Mainak & De Bruyn, Arnaud, 2021. "LSTM Response Models for Direct Marketing Analytics: Replacing Feature Engineering with Deep Learning," Journal of Interactive Marketing, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 80-95.
    6. Peter Martey Addo & Dominique Guégan & Bertrand Hassani, 2018. "Credit Risk Analysis using Machine and Deep learning models," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 18003, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne.
    7. Camila Epprecht & Dominique Guegan & Álvaro Veiga & Joel Correa da Rosa, 2017. "Variable selection and forecasting via automated methods for linear models: LASSO/adaLASSO and Autometrics," Post-Print halshs-00917797, HAL.
    8. Gallego, Jorge & Rivero, Gonzalo & Martínez, Juan, 2021. "Preventing rather than punishing: An early warning model of malfeasance in public procurement," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 360-377.
    9. Tanin Sirimongkolkasem & Reza Drikvandi, 2019. "On Regularisation Methods for Analysis of High Dimensional Data," Annals of Data Science, Springer, vol. 6(4), pages 737-763, December.
    10. van Erp, Sara & Oberski, Daniel L. & Mulder, Joris, 2018. "Shrinkage priors for Bayesian penalized regression," OSF Preprints cg8fq, Center for Open Science.
    11. Sierra A. Bainter & Thomas G. McCauley & Mahmoud M. Fahmy & Zachary T. Goodman & Lauren B. Kupis & J. Sunil Rao, 2023. "Comparing Bayesian Variable Selection to Lasso Approaches for Applications in Psychology," Psychometrika, Springer;The Psychometric Society, vol. 88(3), pages 1032-1055, September.
    12. Tutz, Gerhard & Pößnecker, Wolfgang & Uhlmann, Lorenz, 2015. "Variable selection in general multinomial logit models," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 207-222.
    13. Dolf Talman & Zaifu Yang, 2012. "On a Parameterized System of Nonlinear Equations with Economic Applications," Journal of Optimization Theory and Applications, Springer, vol. 154(2), pages 644-671, August.
    14. Zhiqiang Zheng & Balaji Padmanabhan & Steven O. Kimbrough, 2003. "On the Existence and Significance of Data Preprocessing Biases in Web-Usage Mining," INFORMS Journal on Computing, INFORMS, vol. 15(2), pages 148-170, May.
    15. Herings, P.J.J. & Talman, A.J.J. & Yang, Z.F., 1999. "Variational Inequality Problems With a Continuum of Solutions : Existence and Computation," Other publications TiSEM 73e2f01b-ad4d-4447-95ba-a, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    16. Carlos R. Handy & Daniel Vrinceanu & Carl B. Marth & Harold A. Brooks, 2015. "Pointwise Reconstruction of Wave Functions from Their Moments through Weighted Polynomial Expansions: An Alternative Global-Local Quantization Procedure," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 3(4), pages 1-24, November.
    17. Allen C. Goodman & Miron Stano, 2000. "Hmos and Health Externalities: A Local Public Good Perspective," Public Finance Review, , vol. 28(3), pages 247-269, May.
    18. Bode, Sven & Michaelowa, Axel, 2003. "Avoiding perverse effects of baseline and investment additionality determination in the case of renewable energy projects," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 505-517, May.
    19. Ala, Guido & Fasshauer, Gregory E. & Francomano, Elisa & Ganci, Salvatore & McCourt, Michael J., 2017. "An augmented MFS approach for brain activity reconstruction," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 141(C), pages 3-15.
    20. Bettina Campedelli & Andrea Guerrina & Giulia Romano & Chiara Leardini, 2014. "La performance della rete ospedaliera pubblica della regione Veneto. L?impatto delle variabili ambientali e operative sull?efficienza," MECOSAN, FrancoAngeli Editore, vol. 2014(92), pages 119-142.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jrisks:v:6:y:2018:i:2:p:38-:d:141267. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.