IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hai/wpaper/200506.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

A Tale of Two Effects

Author

Listed:
  • Paul Evans

    (Department of Economics, Ohio State University)

  • Xiaojun Wang

    (Department of Economics, University of Hawaii at Manoa)

Abstract

This paper adopts a New Keynesian approach to analyze the relationship between nominal interest rates and prices. In this new framework, both a positive relation between interest rates and price levels (i.e., a positive Gibson effect) and a negative relation between interest rates and subsequent price changes (i.e., a negative Fama-Fisher effect) arise when money is supplied inelastically and prices are flexible. Such an economy is subject to Gibson’s Paradox, a long-standing puzzle in monetary economics, and a novel paradox identified here, a Fama-Fisher Paradox. By contrast, economies characterized by elastic money and sticky prices are not so paradoxical since nominal interest rates are positively related to subsequent inflation and ambiguously related to the price level. Empirical analysis of nearly two centuries of data for ten countries supports the new theory.

Suggested Citation

  • Paul Evans & Xiaojun Wang, 2005. "A Tale of Two Effects," Working Papers 200506, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:hai:wpaper:200506
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.economics.hawaii.edu/research/workingpapers/WP_05-6.pdf
    File Function: First version, 2004
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Roll, Richard, 1972. "Interest Rates on Monetary Assets and Commodity Price Index Changes," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 27(2), pages 251-277, May.
    2. Sargent, Thomas J, 1973. "Interest Rates and Prices in the Long Run: A Study of the Gibson Paradox," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 5(1), pages 385-449, Part II F.
    3. Clarida, Richard & Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1998. "Monetary policy rules in practice Some international evidence," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 42(6), pages 1033-1067, June.
    4. Robert B. Barsky & J. Bradford De Long, 1991. "Forecasting Pre-World War I Inflation: The Fisher Effect and the Gold Standard," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 106(3), pages 815-836.
    5. Wicksell, Knut, 1907. "The Influence of the Rate of Interest on Prices," History of Economic Thought Articles, McMaster University Archive for the History of Economic Thought, vol. 17, pages 213-220.
    6. Fama, Eugene F, 1975. "Short-Term Interest Rates as Predictors of Inflation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 65(3), pages 269-282, June.
    7. Shiller, Robert J & Siegel, Jeremy J, 1977. "The Gibson Paradox and Historical Movements in Real Interest Rates," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(5), pages 891-907, October.
    8. Hafer, R W & Jansen, Dennis W, 1991. "The Demand for Money in the United States: Evidence from Cointegration Tests," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 23(2), pages 155-168, May.
    9. Barsky, Robert B., 1987. "The Fisher hypothesis and the forecastability and persistence of inflation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 3-24, January.
    10. Dwyer, Gerald P, Jr, 1984. "The Gibson Paradox: A Cross-Country Analysis," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 51(202), pages 109-127, May.
    11. Barsky, Robert B & Summers, Lawrence H, 1988. "Gibson's Paradox and the Gold Standard," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(3), pages 528-550, June.
    12. Klovland Jan Tore, 1993. "Zooming in on Sauerbeck: Monthly Wholesale Prices in Britain 1845-1890," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 195-228, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Cheng, Hao & Kesselring, Randall G. & Brown, Christopher R., 2013. "The Gibson paradox: Evidence from China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 82-93.
    2. Francesca Di Iorio & Stefano Fachin, 2009. "A residual-based bootstrap test for panel cointegration," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 29(4), pages 3222-3232.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Škare, Marinko & Mošnja-Škare, Lorena, 2019. "Economic policy implications of the Gibson Law in the Netherlands (1800–2012)," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 41(5), pages 926-942.
    2. Binder, Carola Conces, 2016. "Estimation of historical inflation expectations," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 1-31.
    3. Chadha, Jagjit S. & Perlman, Morris, 2014. "Was the Gibson Paradox for real? A wicksellian study of the relationship between interest rates and prices," Economic History Working Papers 56896, London School of Economics and Political Science, Department of Economic History.
    4. Cucciniello, Maria Chiara & Deleidi, Matteo & Levrero, Enrico Sergio, 2022. "The cost channel of monetary policy: The case of the United States in the period 1959–2018," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 409-433.
    5. Hüseyin Şen & Ayşe Kaya & Savaş Kaptan & Metehan Cömert, 2019. "Interest rates, inflation, and exchange rates in fragile EMEs: A fresh look at the long-run interrelationships," Working Papers halshs-02095652, HAL.
    6. Dr Ferda Halicioglou, 2004. "The Gibson Paradox: An Empirical Investigation for Turkey," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(1-2), pages 111-120.
    7. Seçkin Kabak & Tuðçe Dallý, 2023. "Gibson Paradox: Panel Data Analysis on ASEAN-T Countries," International Econometric Review (IER), Econometric Research Association, vol. 15(1), pages 12-27, March.
    8. Robert J. Shiller, 1980. "Can the Fed Control Real Interest Rates?," NBER Chapters, in: Rational Expectations and Economic Policy, pages 117-167, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Robert B. Barsky & J. Bradford De Long, 1993. "Why Does the Stock Market Fluctuate?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 108(2), pages 291-311.
    10. Serge Coulombe, 1998. "A Non-Paradoxical Interpretation of the Gibson Paradox," Staff Working Papers 98-22, Bank of Canada.
    11. Robert B. Barsky & J. Bradford De Long, 1988. "Forecasting Pre-World War I Inflation: The Fisher Effect Revisited," NBER Working Papers 2784, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. James Payne & Bradley Ewing, 1997. "Evidence from lesser developed countries on the Fisher hypothesis: a cointegration analysis," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(11), pages 683-687.
    13. Barsky, Robert B., 1987. "The Fisher hypothesis and the forecastability and persistence of inflation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 3-24, January.
    14. Daniel Kaufmann, 2016. "Is Deflation Costly After All? Evidence from Noisy Historical Data," KOF Working papers 16-421, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
    15. Kris James Mitchener & Marc D. Weidenmier, 2010. "Searching for Irving Fisher," NBER Working Papers 15670, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Akosah, Nana Kwame & Alagidede, Imhotep Paul & Schaling, Eric, 2020. "Testing for asymmetry in monetary policy rule for small-open developing economies: Multiscale Bayesian quantile evidence from Ghana," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 22(C).
    17. Law, Siong Hook & Tan, Hui & baharumshah, ahmad, 1999. "Financial Liberalization in ASEAN and the Fisher Hypothesis," Jurnal Ekonomi Malaysia, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, vol. 33, pages 65-86.
    18. Beaulieu, Marie-Claude, 1995. "Rendements boursiers et inflation," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 71(4), pages 455-480, décembre.
    19. Raymond Hawkins & Jeffrey Speakes & Dan Hamilton, 2015. "Monetary policy and PID control," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 10(1), pages 183-197, April.
    20. repec:hal:wpspec:info:hdl:2441/2961 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Coppock, Lee & Poitras, Marc, 2000. "Evaluating the Fisher effect in long-term cross-country averages," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 181-192.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fama-Fisher Paradox; Gibson’s Paradox; inelastic money; flexible prices; gold standard;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hai:wpaper:200506. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Web Technician (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/deuhius.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.