A Tale of Two Effects
This paper investigates the relationship between nominal interest rates and prices using nearly two centuries of data from ten industrial countries. Both a positive relationship between interest rates and price levels (that is, a positive Gibson effect) and a negative relationship between interest rates and subsequent price changes (that is, a negative Fama-Fisher effect) prevailed until World War I. We propose a simple explanation wherein this doubly paradoxical juxtaposition of effects arises when money is supplied inelastically and prices are flexible. This double paradox disappeared after World War II when economies became mostly characterized by elastic money and sticky prices. During that period, a positive Fama-Fisher effect emerged while the Gibson effect largely dissipated. Copyright by the President and Fellows of Harvard College and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Volume (Year): 90 (2008)
Issue (Month): 1 (February)
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://mitpress.mit.edu/journals/|
|Order Information:||Web: http://mitpress.mit.edu/journal-home.tcl?issn=00346535|
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Hafer, R.W. & Jansen, D.W., 1990.
"The Demand For Money In The United States: Evidence From Cointegration Tests,"
9010, Erasmus University of Rotterdam - Institute for Economic Research.
- Hafer, R W & Jansen, Dennis W, 1991. "The Demand for Money in the United States: Evidence from Cointegration Tests," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 23(2), pages 155-168, May.
- Robert B. Barsky & J. Bradford De Long, 1991.
"Forecasting Pre-World War I Inflation: The Fisher Effect and the Gold Standard,"
The Quarterly Journal of Economics,
Oxford University Press, vol. 106(3), pages 815-836.
- Robert B. Barsky & J. Bradford De Long, "undated". "Forecasting Pre-World War I Inflation: The Fisher Effect and the Gold Standard," J. Bradford De Long's Working Papers _121, University of California at Berkeley, Economics Department.
- Clarida, Richard & Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1997.
"Monetary Policy Rules in Practice: Some International Evidence,"
97-32, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
- Clarida, Richard & Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1998. "Monetary policy rules in practice Some international evidence," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 42(6), pages 1033-1067, June.
- Richard Clarida & Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 1997. "Monetary Policy Rules in Practice: Some International Evidence," NBER Working Papers 6254, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Clarida, Richard & Galí, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1997. "Monetary Policy Rules in Practice: Some International Evidence," CEPR Discussion Papers 1750, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Barsky, Robert B., 1987.
"The Fisher hypothesis and the forecastability and persistence of inflation,"
Journal of Monetary Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 3-24, January.
- Robert B. Barsky, 1986. "The Fisher Hypothesis and the Forecastability and Persistence of Inflation," NBER Working Papers 1927, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Roll, Richard, 1972. "Interest Rates on Monetary Assets and Commodity Price Index Changes," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 27(2), pages 251-277, May.
- Dwyer, Gerald P, Jr, 1984. "The Gibson Paradox: A Cross-Country Analysis," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 51(202), pages 109-127, May.
- Thomas J. Sargent, 1971.
"Interest rates and prices in the long run: a study of the Gibson paradox,"
75, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- Sargent, Thomas J, 1973. "Interest Rates and Prices in the Long Run: A Study of the Gibson Paradox," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 5(1), pages 385-449, Part II F.
- Robert B. Barsky & Lawrence H. Summers, 1985.
"Gibson's Paradox and the Gold Standard,"
NBER Working Papers
1680, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Klovland Jan Tore, 1993. "Zooming in on Sauerbeck: Monthly Wholesale Prices in Britain 1845-1890," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 195-228, April.
- Fama, Eugene F, 1975. "Short-Term Interest Rates as Predictors of Inflation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 65(3), pages 269-282, June.
- Wicksell, Knut, 1907. "The Influence of the Rate of Interest on Prices," History of Economic Thought Articles, McMaster University Archive for the History of Economic Thought, vol. 17, pages 213-220.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:tpr:restat:v:90:y:2008:i:1:p:147-157. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Kristin Waites)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.