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Income Convergence: The Dickey-Fuller Test under the Simultaneous Presence of Stochastic and Deterministic Trends

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Listed:
  • Manuel Gomez

    (Department of Economics and Finance, Universidad de Guanajuato)

  • Daniel Ventosa-Santaularia

    (Department of Economics and Finance, Universidad de Guanajuato)

Abstract

We investigate the efficiency of the Dickey-Fuller (DF) test as a tool to examine the convergence hypothesis. In doing so, we first describe two possible outcomes, overlooked in previous studies, namely Loose Catching-up and Loose Lagging-behind. Results suggest that this test is useful when the intention is to discriminate between a unit root process and a trend stationary process, though unreliable when used to differentiate between a unit root process and a process with both deterministic and stochastic trends. This issue may explain the lack of support for the convergence hypothesis in the aforementioned literature.

Suggested Citation

  • Manuel Gomez & Daniel Ventosa-Santaularia, 2007. "Income Convergence: The Dickey-Fuller Test under the Simultaneous Presence of Stochastic and Deterministic Trends," Department of Economics and Finance Working Papers EM200703, Universidad de Guanajuato, Department of Economics and Finance.
    • Handle: RePEc:gua:wpaper:em200703
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Les Oxley & David Greasley, 1995. "A Time‐Series Perspective on Convergence: Australia, UK and USA since 1870," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 71(3), pages 259-270, September.
    2. Bernard, Andrew B. & Durlauf, Steven N., 1996. "Interpreting tests of the convergence hypothesis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 71(1-2), pages 161-173.
    3. Kian-Ping Lim & M. Azali & Hock-Ann Lee, 2005. "Income Disparity between Japan and ASEAN-5 Economies: Converge, Catching Up or Diverge?," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 6(13), pages 1-20.
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    5. Bernard, Andrew B & Durlauf, Steven N, 1995. "Convergence in International Output," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 10(2), pages 97-108, April-Jun.
    6. Phillips, P.C.B., 1986. "Understanding spurious regressions in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 311-340, December.
    7. Uwe Hasseler, 2000. "Simple Regressions with Linear Time Trends," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(1), pages 27-32, January.
    8. Oxley, Les & Greasley, David, 1995. "A Time-Series Perspective on Convergence: Australia, UK and USA since 1870," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 71(214), pages 259-270, September.
    9. Li, Qing & Papell, David, 1999. "Convergence of international output Time series evidence for 16 OECD countries," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 267-280, September.
    10. Loewy, Michael B. & Papell, David H., 1996. "Are U.S. regional incomes converging? Some further evidence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 587-598, December.
    11. Carlino, Gerald A. & Mills, Leonard O., 1993. "Are U.S. regional incomes converging? : A time series analysis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 335-346, November.
    12. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:6:y:2005:i:13:p:1-20 is not listed on IDEAS
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    Cited by:

    1. Ventosa-Santaulària Daniel & Gómez-Zaldívar Manuel, 2011. "Testing for a Deterministic Trend When There is Evidence of Unit Root," Journal of Time Series Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 2(2), pages 1-26, January.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Divergence; Loose Catching-up/Lagging-behind; Convergence; Deterministic and Stochastic trends;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General

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