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Income Convergence: The Dickey-Fuller Test under the Simultaneous Presence of Stochastic and Deterministic Trends


  • Manuel Gomez

    () (Department of Economics and Finance, Universidad de Guanajuato)

  • Daniel Ventosa-Santaularia

    () (Department of Economics and Finance, Universidad de Guanajuato)


We investigate the efficiency of the Dickey-Fuller (DF) test as a tool to examine the convergence hypothesis. In doing so, we first describe two possible outcomes, overlooked in previous studies, namely Loose Catching-up and Loose Lagging-behind. Results suggest that this test is useful when the intention is to discriminate between a unit root process and a trend stationary process, though unreliable when used to differentiate between a unit root process and a process with both deterministic and stochastic trends. This issue may explain the lack of support for the convergence hypothesis in the aforementioned literature.

Suggested Citation

  • Manuel Gomez & Daniel Ventosa-Santaularia, 2007. "Income Convergence: The Dickey-Fuller Test under the Simultaneous Presence of Stochastic and Deterministic Trends," Department of Economics and Finance Working Papers EM200703, Universidad de Guanajuato, Department of Economics and Finance.
  • Handle: RePEc:gua:wpaper:em200703

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Bernard, Andrew B. & Durlauf, Steven N., 1996. "Interpreting tests of the convergence hypothesis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 71(1-2), pages 161-173.
    2. Kian-Ping Lim & M. Azali & Hock-Ann Lee, 2005. "Income Disparity between Japan and ASEAN-5 Economies: Converge, Catching Up or Diverge?," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 6(13), pages 1-20.
    3. P. C. B. Phillips & S. N. Durlauf, 1986. "Multiple Time Series Regression with Integrated Processes," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 53(4), pages 473-495.
    4. Phillips, P.C.B., 1986. "Understanding spurious regressions in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 311-340, December.
    5. Oxley, Les & Greasley, David, 1995. "A Time-Series Perspective on Convergence: Australia, UK and USA since 1870," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 71(214), pages 259-270, September.
    6. Loewy, Michael B. & Papell, David H., 1996. "Are U.S. regional incomes converging? Some further evidence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 587-598, December.
    7. Carlino, Gerald A. & Mills, Leonard O., 1993. "Are U.S. regional incomes converging? : A time series analysis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 335-346, November.
    8. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:6:y:2005:i:13:p:1-20 is not listed on IDEAS
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    Cited by:

    1. Ventosa-Santaulària Daniel & Gómez-Zaldívar Manuel, 2011. "Testing for a Deterministic Trend When There is Evidence of Unit Root," Journal of Time Series Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 2(2), pages 1-26, January.

    More about this item


    Divergence; Loose Catching-up/Lagging-behind; Convergence; Deterministic and Stochastic trends;

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General

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