The Free Trade Agreement Morocco-EU: a simulation of the impact on EU exports
We analyse the effect due of the next FTA between Morocco and the EU on bilateral Moroccan imports. As our main contribution to the existing literature, we include in our gravity equation tariff data at the industry level. This allows to better estimate trade determinants and also makes possible to perform simulations of the tariff dismantling taking into account its different path for each industry and year. A complete tariff dismantling will double the average yearly trade growth observed in the years just before the transition period to the FTA begun. The average effect follows the tariff reduction schedule being greater at the beginning and at the end of the transition period. The effect is positive for all EU Member States but exports growth to Morocco is greater for Portugal, Greece, Slovakia, Lithuania and Spain and lower for Germany, Denmark, Finland, France and Sweden. By industries, the faster growth are predicted for Leather and leather products, Wood and wood products, Textiles and textile products, Rubber and plastic products and Pulp, paper an paper products and publishing and printing. Finally, we also find a positive effect of Moroccan immigration in the EU on bilateral trade.
|Date of creation:||26 Oct 2006|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Web page: http://www.ugr.es/local/teoriaheEmail:
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- David Cox & Richard Harris, 1983.
"Trade Liberalization and Industrial Organization: Some Estimates for Canada,"
523, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
- Cox, David & Harris, Richard, 1985. "Trade Liberalization and Industrial Organization: Some Estimates for Canada," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 93(1), pages 115-45, February.
- Sourafel Girma & Zhihao Yu, 2002. "The link between immigration and trade: Evidence from the United Kingdom," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 138(1), pages 115-130, March.
- Keith Head & Thierry Mayer, 2004.
"Non-Europe : the magnitude and causes of market fragmentation in the EU,"
Cahiers de la Maison des Sciences Economiques
bla99004a, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1).
- Keith Head & Thierry Mayer, 2000. "Non-Europe: The magnitude and causes of market fragmentation in the EU," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 136(2), pages 284-314, June.
- José Vicente Blanes-Cristóbal, 2005.
"Immigrant’s Characteristics and its different effects on bilateral trade,"
05-09, Asociación Española de Economía y Finanzas Internacionales.
- José Vicente Blanes-Cristóbal, . "Immigrant's Characteristics and its different effects on bilateral trade," Working Papers on International Economics and Finance 05-09, FEDEA.
- James E. Rauch & Vitor Trindade, 2002.
"Ethnic Chinese Networks In International Trade,"
The Review of Economics and Statistics,
MIT Press, vol. 84(1), pages 116-130, February.
- David Hummels & James Levinsohn, 1993.
"Monopolistic Competition and International Trade: Reconsidering the Evidence,"
NBER Working Papers
4389, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Hummels, David & Levinsohn, James, 1995. "Monopolistic Competition and International Trade: Reconsidering the Evidence," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 110(3), pages 799-836, August.
- Hummels, D. & Levinsohn, J., 1993. "Monopolistic Competition and International Trade: Reconsidering the Evidence," Working Papers 339, Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan.
- José V. Blanes & Joan A. Martín-Montaner, 2006.
"Migration Flows and Intra-Industry Trade Adjustments,"
Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv),
Springer, vol. 142(3), pages 567-584, October.
- José V. Blanes & Joan A. Martín-Montaner, 2006. "Migration Flows and Intra-Industry Trade Adjustments," Working Papers 06.04, Universidad Pablo de Olavide, Department of Economics.
- Dunlevy, James A. & Hutchinson, William K., 1999. "The Impact of Immigration on American Import Trade in the Late Nineteenth and Early Twentieth Centuries," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 59(04), pages 1043-1062, December.
- Andrew K. Rose, 2002.
"Do We Really KNow that the WTO Increases Trade?,"
182002, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
- Shang-Jin Wei, 1996. "Intra-National versus International Trade: How Stubborn are Nations in Global Integration?," NBER Working Papers 5531, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Wagner, Don & Head, Keith & Ries, John, 2002. "Immigration and the Trade of Provinces," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 49(5), pages 507-25, December.
- Simon J. Evenett & Wolfgang Keller, 1996.
"On Theories Explaining the Success of the Gravity Equation,"
9608001, EconWPA, revised 13 Jun 1997.
- Simon J. Evenett & Wolfgang Keller, 2002. "On Theories Explaining the Success of the Gravity Equation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 110(2), pages 281-316, April.
- Simon J. Evenett & Wolfgang Keller, 1998. "On Theories Explaining the Success of the Gravity Equation," NBER Working Papers 6529, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Castilho, Marta & Zignago, Soledad, 2002.
"FDI, Trade and Integration in Mercosur,"
43886, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Soledad Zignago & Marta Castilho, 2000. "Commerce et IDE dans un cadre de régionalisation. Le cas du Mercosur," Revue économique, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(3), pages 761-774.
- Marta Castilho & Soledad Zignago, 2000. "Commerce et IDE dans un cadre de régionalisation. Le cas du Mercosur," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 51(3), pages 761-774.
- Anderson, James E, 1979. "A Theoretical Foundation for the Gravity Equation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(1), pages 106-16, March.
- Haveman, J-D & Hummels, D, 1996. "Trade Creation and Trade Diversion : New Empirical Results," Papers 96-004, Purdue University, Krannert School of Management - Center for International Business Education and Research (CIBER).
- Howard J. Wall, 1999. "Using the gravity model to estimate the costs of protection," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jan, pages 33-40.
- José V. Blanes, 2005.
"Does Immigration Help to Explain Intra-Industry Trade? Evidence for Spain,"
Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv),
Springer, vol. 141(2), pages 244-270, July.
- José Vicente Blanes Cristóbal, 2004. "Does Immigration Help to Explain Intra-Industry Trade? Evidence for Spain," Economic Working Papers at Centro de Estudios Andaluces E2004/29, Centro de Estudios Andaluces.
- Baier, Scott L. & Bergstrand, Jeffrey H., 2001. "The growth of world trade: tariffs, transport costs, and income similarity," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 1-27, February.
- Lionel Fontagné & Michaël Freudenberg, 1997. "Intra-Industry Trade: Methodological Issues Reconsidered," Working Papers 1997-01, CEPII research center.
- Juliette Milgram Baleix, 2005. "Quotas on Clothing Imports: Impact and Determinants of EU Trade Policy," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(3), pages 445-460, 08.
- Keith Head & John Ries, 1998. "Immigration and Trade Creation: Econometric Evidence from Canada," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 31(1), pages 47-62, February.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gra:wpaper:06/09. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Angel Solano Garcia.)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.