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The Free Trade Agreement Morocco-EU: a simulation of the impact on EU exports

Author

Listed:
  • José V. Blanes

    () (Universidad Pablo de Olavide)

  • Juliette Milgram Baleix

    () (Department of Economic Theory and Economic History, University of Granada.)

Abstract

We analyse the effect due of the next FTA between Morocco and the EU on bilateral Moroccan imports. As our main contribution to the existing literature, we include in our gravity equation tariff data at the industry level. This allows to better estimate trade determinants and also makes possible to perform simulations of the tariff dismantling taking into account its different path for each industry and year. A complete tariff dismantling will double the average yearly trade growth observed in the years just before the transition period to the FTA begun. The average effect follows the tariff reduction schedule being greater at the beginning and at the end of the transition period. The effect is positive for all EU Member States but exports growth to Morocco is greater for Portugal, Greece, Slovakia, Lithuania and Spain and lower for Germany, Denmark, Finland, France and Sweden. By industries, the faster growth are predicted for Leather and leather products, Wood and wood products, Textiles and textile products, Rubber and plastic products and Pulp, paper an paper products and publishing and printing. Finally, we also find a positive effect of Moroccan immigration in the EU on bilateral trade.

Suggested Citation

  • José V. Blanes & Juliette Milgram Baleix, 2006. "The Free Trade Agreement Morocco-EU: a simulation of the impact on EU exports," ThE Papers 06/09, Department of Economic Theory and Economic History of the University of Granada..
  • Handle: RePEc:gra:wpaper:06/09
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    File URL: http://www.ugr.es/~teoriahe/RePEc/gra/wpaper/thepapers06_09.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Juliette Milgram Baleix, 2005. "Quotas on Clothing Imports: Impact and Determinants of EU Trade Policy," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(3), pages 445-460, August.
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    Cited by:

    1. Mouna Cherkaoui & Ayache Khellaf & Abdelaziz Nihou, 2011. "The Price Effect of Tariff Liberalization in Morocco: Measuring the Impact on Household Welfare," Working Papers 637, Economic Research Forum, revised 10 Jan 2011.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    liberalisation; EU; Morocco; Free Trade Area; Tariff; Immigration; Liberalisation; gravity equation.;

    JEL classification:

    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation
    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration

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