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The Free Trade Agreement Morocco-EU: A simulation of the impact on bilateral flows

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Abstract

We analyse the effect due of the next FTA between Morocco and the EU on bilateral Moroccan imports. As our main contribution to the existing literature, we include in our gravity equation tariff data at the industry level. This allows to better estimate trade determinants and also makes possible to perform simulations of the tariff dismantling taking into account its different path for each industry and year. A complete tariff dismantling will double the average yearly trade growth observed in the years just before the transition period to the FTA begun. The average effect follows the tariff reduction schedule being greater at the beginning and at the end of the transition period. The effect is positive for all EU Member States but exports growth to Morocco is greater for Portugal, Greece, Slovakia, Lithuania and Spain and lower for Germany, Denmark, Finland, France and Sweden. By industries, the faster growth are predicted for Leather and leather products, Wood and wood products, Textiles and textile products, Rubber and plastic products and Pulp, paper an paper products and publishing and printing. Finally, we also find a positive effect of Moroccan immigration in the EU on bilateral trade.

Suggested Citation

  • José Vicente Blanes Cristóbal & Juliette Milgram Baleix, 2006. "The Free Trade Agreement Morocco-EU: A simulation of the impact on bilateral flows," Economic Working Papers at Centro de Estudios Andaluces E2006/23, Centro de Estudios Andaluces.
    • Handle: RePEc:cea:doctra:e2006_23
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Liberalisation; EU; Morocco; Free Trade Area; Tariff; Immigration; gravity equation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General
    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation
    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration

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