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Floods, terrorist attacks and the covid-19 pandemic: How the (de)centralization of power affects the rally around the flag

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  • Ignacio Lago
  • André Blais

Abstract

This article examines whether rally effects when an unexpected calamity occurs are affected by the degree of (de)centralization of power. We argue that when the national government is exclusively in charge of the policy affected by the calamity, the rally should be comparatively greater than when the responsibility is shared between several levels of government. The argument is tested using observational data from national legislative and presidential elections after 423 major floods, 226 terrorist attacks and 61 pandemic elections. We find that it is only in centralized countries that incumbent governments perform better under a more severe pandemic.

Suggested Citation

  • Ignacio Lago & André Blais, 2022. "Floods, terrorist attacks and the covid-19 pandemic: How the (de)centralization of power affects the rally around the flag," Working Papers. Collection A: Public economics, governance and decentralization 2208, Universidade de Vigo, GEN - Governance and Economics research Network.
    • Handle: RePEc:gov:wpaper:2208
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    File URL: http://infogen.webs.uvigo.es/WP/WP2208.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Berrebi, Claude & Klor, Esteban F., 2008. "Are Voters Sensitive to Terrorism? Direct Evidence from the Israeli Electorate," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 102(3), pages 279-301, August.
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    5. Samia Amin & Markus Goldstein, 2008. "Data Against Natural Disasters : Establishing Effective Systems for Relief, Recovery, and Reconstruction," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 6511, December.
    6. Heersink, Boris & Peterson, Brenton D. & Jenkins, Jeffery A., 2017. "Disasters and Elections: Estimating the Net Effect of Damage and Relief in Historical Perspective," Political Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(2), pages 260-268, April.
    7. Hale, Henry E., 2022. "Authoritarian Rallying as Reputational Cascade? Evidence from Putin’s Popularity Surge after Crimea," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 116(2), pages 580-594, May.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    COVID-19; Elections; Floods; Rally; Terrorist Attack.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H11 - Public Economics - - Structure and Scope of Government - - - Structure and Scope of Government
    • H23 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Externalities; Redistributive Effects; Environmental Taxes and Subsidies
    • H77 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations - - - Intergovernmental Relations; Federalism
    • Q58 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environmental Economics: Government Policy

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