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Microeconomic Foundations of the Demographic Dividend

  • David E. Bloom

    ()

    (Harvard School of Public Health)

  • David Canning

    ()

    (Harvard School of Public Health)

  • Günther Fink

    ()

    (Harvard School of Public Health)

  • Jocelyn E. Finlay

    ()

    (Harvard Center for Population and Development Studies)

The potential economic returns to the demographic transition are high. As countries move from a steady state with high mortality and high fertility to an equilibrium with low mortality and fewer children, lower dependency ratios, higher investment in human and physical capital as well as increased female labor force participation contribute to economic growth. In this paper, we analyze the demographic transition at the household level, investigating the distributional patterns of the economic and welfare benefits associated with the demographic transition across socioeconomic groups within countries and over time. We find large differences in the effects of the demographic transition across socioeconomic status (SES) groups in the early stages of the demographic transition, but also substantial behavioral change across all groups during phases of rapid fertility decline, so that the long-run effects of the demographic transition on inequality remain ambiguous.

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File URL: http://www.hsph.harvard.edu/pgda/WorkingPapers/2012/PGDA_WP_93.pdf
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Paper provided by Program on the Global Demography of Aging in its series PGDA Working Papers with number 9312.

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Date of creation: Aug 2012
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Handle: RePEc:gdm:wpaper:9312
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.hsph.harvard.edu/pgda

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  1. David E. Bloom & David Canning & Bryan Graham, 2002. "Longevity and Life Cycle Savings," NBER Working Papers 8808, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Gary S. Becker & Kevin M. Murphy & Robert Tamura, 1994. "Human Capital, Fertility, and Economic Growth," NBER Chapters, in: Human Capital: A Theoretical and Empirical Analysis with Special Reference to Education (3rd Edition), pages 323-350 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Angeles, Luis, 2008. "Demographic Transitions: analyzing the effects of mortality on fertility," SIRE Discussion Papers 2008-33, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
  4. Oded Galor, 2006. "Human Capital, Fertility and Growth," Working Papers 2006-22, Brown University, Department of Economics.
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