IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/fpr/ifprid/955.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Impacts of the triple global crisis on growth and poverty in Yemen

Author

Listed:
  • Breisinger, Clemens
  • Collion, Marie-Helen
  • Diao, Xinshen
  • Rondot, Pierre

Abstract

Yemen is an oil-exporting and food-importing country on the Arabian Peninsula with persistently high levels of poverty. The impacts of the food, fuel, and financial global crises are likely to further complicate preexisting conditions of internal conflicts, decreasing oil revenues, and governance failure. The latest official growth numbers date back to precrisis levels; new estimates are subject to much debate; and the current state of poverty in Yemen remains unclear. In this paper, a consistent economic framework is presented to help close this information gap and to better understand growth and poverty dynamics during crises. Results show that economic growth in Yemen accelerated during the food and fuel crises in 2008 because oil-driven growth dominated the negative growth impacts of the food crisis. However, this oil-driven growth has not been pro-poor; in fact, poverty in both rural and urban areas rises sharply in 2008. The financial crisis in 2009 impacts Yemen mainly through the drop in oil prices and a reduction in remittances and thereby sharply slows growth, including agricultural growth. This growth decline hits households hard and compounds the poverty effects of the food crisis. Model results indicate that poverty has increased to 42.8 percent in 2009, an increase of 8 percentage points from 2005–2006, when it was 34.8 percent. Poverty continues to be much higher in rural areas, where almost half of all people lived in poverty in 2009, compared with 29.9 percent in urban areas. These estimates can be considered conservative because we do not account for conflicts and natural disasters that recently hit the country.

Suggested Citation

  • Breisinger, Clemens & Collion, Marie-Helen & Diao, Xinshen & Rondot, Pierre, 2010. "Impacts of the triple global crisis on growth and poverty in Yemen," IFPRI discussion papers 955, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
  • Handle: RePEc:fpr:ifprid:955
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://hdl.handle.net/10568/154531
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. -, 2008. "Anuario Estadístico de América Latina y el Caribe 2007 = Statistical Yearbook of Latin America and the Caribbean 2007," Anuario Estadístico de América Latina y el Caribe / Statistical Yearbook for Latin America and the Caribbean, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), number 922 edited by Cepal, September.
    2. Diao, Xinshen & Rattso, Jorn & Stokke, Hildegunn Ekroll, 2005. "International spillovers, productivity growth and openness in Thailand: an intertemporal general equilibrium analysis," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(2), pages 429-450, April.
    3. Ivanic, Maros & Martin, Will, 2008. "Implications of higher global food prices for poverty in low-income countries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4594, The World Bank.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Benjamin Schwab, 2020. "In the Form of Bread? A Randomized Comparison of Cash and Food Transfers in Yemen," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 102(1), pages 91-113, January.
    2. Al-Bataly, Abdulmajeed & Al-Riffai, Perrihan & Breisinger, Clemens & Ecker, Olivier & Engelke, Wilfried, 2012. "Managing transition in Yemen: An assessment of the costs of conflict and development scenarios for the future," IFPRI discussion papers 1210, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    3. Naranpanawa, Athula & Bandara, Jayatilleke S., 2012. "Poverty and growth impacts of high oil prices: Evidence from Sri Lanka," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 102-111.
    4. Gilligan, Daniel & Hidrobo, Melissa & Hoddinott, John & Roy, Shalini & Schwab, Benjamin, 2014. "Much ado about modalities: Multicountry experiments on the effects of cash and food transfers on consumption patterns," 2014 Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2014, Minneapolis, Minnesota 171159, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    5. Aragon, Catherine & Breisinger, Clemens & Ecker, Olivier & Minot, Nicholas & Nin Pratt, Alejandro & Ringler, Claudia & Yu, Bingxin & Zhu, Tingju & van Rheenen, Teunis, 2010. "Food security and economic development in the Middle East and North Africa," IFPRI discussion papers 985, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    6. Ecker, Olivier & Breisinger, Clemens & McCool, Christen & Diao, Xinshen & Funes, José & You, Liangzhi & Yu, Bingxin, 2010. "Assessing food security in Yemen: An innovative integrated, cross-sector, and multilevel approach," IFPRI discussion papers 982, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    7. Breisinger, Clemens & Engelke, Wilfried & Ecker, Olivier, 2011. "Petroleum subsidies in Yemen : leveraging reform for development," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5577, The World Bank.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Abdoul G. Sam & Babatunde O. Abidoye & Sihle Mashaba, 2021. "Climate change and household welfare in sub-Saharan Africa: empirical evidence from Swaziland," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 13(2), pages 439-455, April.
    2. Kym Anderson & Maros Ivanic & William J. Martin, 2014. "Food Price Spikes, Price Insulation, and Poverty," NBER Chapters, in: The Economics of Food Price Volatility, pages 311-339, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Irene Brambilla & Guido Porto, 2016. "Trade, Poverty Eradication, and the Sustainable Development Goals," ADBI Working Papers 629, Asian Development Bank Institute.
    4. Alejandro de la Fuente & Eduardo Ortiz-Juárez & Carlos Rodríguez-Castelán, 2018. "Living on the edge: vulnerability to poverty and public transfers in Mexico," Oxford Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(1), pages 10-27, January.
    5. Hanan G. Jacoby & Basab Dasgupta, 2014. "Household Exposure to Food Price Shocks in Rural Bangladesh," Bangladesh Development Studies, Bangladesh Institute of Development Studies (BIDS), vol. 37(1-2), pages 83-100.
    6. Hübler, Michael, 2011. "Technology diffusion under contraction and convergence: A CGE analysis of China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 131-142, January.
    7. Ivanic, Maros & Martin, Will & Zaman, Hassan, 2012. "Estimating the Short-Run Poverty Impacts of the 2010–11 Surge in Food Prices," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 40(11), pages 2302-2317.
    8. Martin, Will, 2021. "Tools for measuring the full impacts of agricultural interventions," IFPRI-MCC technical papers 2, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    9. Christiane Baumeister & Lutz Kilian, 2014. "Do oil price increases cause higher food prices? [Biofuels, binding constraints, and agricultural commodity price volatility]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 29(80), pages 691-747.
    10. Cudjoe, Godsway & Breisinger, Clemens & Diao, Xinshen, 2010. "Local impacts of a global crisis: Food price transmission, consumer welfare and poverty in Ghana," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 294-302, August.
    11. Giovanni Andrea Cornia & Laura Deotti & Maria Sassi, "undated". "Food Price Volatility over the Last Decade in Niger and Malawi: Extent, Sources and Impact on Child Malnutrition," UNDP Africa Policy Notes 2012-002, United Nations Development Programme, Regional Bureau for Africa.
    12. Benson, Todd & Minot, Nicholas & Pender, John L. & Robles, Miguel & von Braun, Joachim, 2008. "Global food crises: Monitoring and assessing impact to inform policy responses," Food policy reports 19, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    13. Anna D'Souza & Dean Jolliffe, 2012. "Rising Food Prices and Coping Strategies: Household-level Evidence from Afghanistan," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(2), pages 282-299, August.
    14. Kym Anderson & Will Martin, 2009. "Distortions to Agricultural Incentives in Asia," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 2611, April.
    15. Carine Meyimdjui, 2017. "Food Price Shocks and Government Expenditure Composition: Evidence from African Countries," Working Papers halshs-01457366, HAL.
    16. Jin Guo & Tetsuji Tanaka, 2020. "Examining the determinants of global and local price passthrough in cereal markets: evidence from DCC-GJR-GARCH and panel analyses," Agricultural and Food Economics, Springer;Italian Society of Agricultural Economics (SIDEA), vol. 8(1), pages 1-22, December.
    17. Celine de Quatrebarbes & Bertrand Laporte & Stéphane Calipel, 2021. "Fighting the soaring prices of agricultural food products. VAT versus Trade tariffs exemptions in a context of imperfect competition in Niger : CGE and micro-simulation approach," CERDI Working papers hal-03138369, HAL.
    18. Pedro Moncarz & Sergio Barone & Germán Calfat & Ricardo Descalzi, 2017. "Poverty Impacts of Changes in the International Prices of Agricultural Commodities: Recent Evidence for Argentina (An Ex-Ante Analysis)," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 53(3), pages 375-395, March.
    19. Parrado, Ramiro & De Cian, Enrica, 2014. "Technology spillovers embodied in international trade: Intertemporal, regional and sectoral effects in a global CGE framework," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 76-89.
    20. Dalheimer, Bernhard & Herwartz, Helmut & Lange, Alexander, 2021. "The threat of oil market turmoils to food price stability in Sub-Saharan Africa," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    economic crises; conflicts; growth; poverty; development policies; Yemen; Western Asia;
    All these keywords.

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fpr:ifprid:955. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ifprius.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.